The BBWAA will announce the results of their Hall of Fame voting for 2010 tomorrow afternoon. Yesterday, we looked at the 26 candidates and dismissed over half of them. Today, we’ll take a look at the remaining 8 who have a better chance and the 4 who should be elected.

Try Again Next Year: A case can be made, but will need to be made again next year.

• Fred McGriff – Probably has the numbers to make it, but will suffer due to never being thought of as a potential Hall of Famer while he was playing.  He and Alan Trammell were probably hurt the most by the late-90’s offensive (and steroid) explosion.
• Bert Blyleven – In his first year of eligibility, he got 26 fewer votes than Tommy John, and nobody is looking to put Tommy John in the Hall of Fame.
• Harold Baines – He barely got enough votes last year to stay on the ballot, which is a shame.  He’s hurt by being a DH for the majority of his career after knee injuries, and played the majority of his career in the shadows of Chicago’s south side and Baltimore.  If Jim Rice makes it in, so should Harold.  But he won’t.
• Lee Smith – He was the all-time saves leader when he retired, but benefited from the transition of the closer role from fireman to guy who gets the last three outs and racks up saves.  He’s already been passed twice on the career saves list.
• Jack Morris – One of the best, if not the best, Game 7 World Series performance of all time, but, overall, an very good pitcher who wasn’t quite good enough to make the Hall of Fame.
• Don Mattingly – No offense to Donnie Baseball, but being the best Yankee in a decade of bad Yankee teams does not a Hall of Famer make.  If it weren’t for injuries, he may have had a legitimate shot.
• Edgar Martinez – Will probably make it some day, but will need to overcome the DH stigma.  Many are excusing that he didn’t hit the big numbers due to not making the majors full-time until age 27, but I don’t see why he gets a pass for that.
• Barry Larkin – Again, will probably make it but not on the first shot.  Might be slightly overlooked after spending his entire career in Cincinnati.

The 2010 Hall of Fame Class (according to me)

Andre Dawson

Seeing as Jim Rice made it last year, Andre Dawson should have no problems punching his ticket this year.  While Rice may have been the “most feared” hitter in the AL during the 1970s, an argument could be made that Dawson filled a similar role in the NL.  In addition to the power numbers, Dawson was also able to play defense and wasn’t a hindrance on the base paths.  He was the 1977 NL Rookie of the Year and the 1987 NL Most Valuable Player.

Some of the things that will hold back his election is the low career OBP and his spending his formative years in the spotlight graveyard known as Montreal, but after getting 67% of the vote last year, he’s due for a bump this year.

Tim Raines

Last year, Raines garnered only 22.6% of the vote, which is mind-blowing.  He is quite possibly the best leadoff hitter in the history of the game not named Rickey Henderson, with a similar, if not as potent, blend of speed and power.

The only downsides are, again, his best years were spent in Montreal and his involvement in the Pittsburgh Drug Trials.  There’s really no reason why Raines shouldn’t be in Cooperstown.

Mark McGwire

So, what to say about McGwire.  His numbers speak for themselves, but he’s been locked out of Cooperstown so far due to a backlash against the “steroid era” stemming from his testimony, or lack thereof, in front of Congress.

I think this is the year that things start to turn around for McGwire.  For one, he is returning to the game as the hitting coach for the Cardinals.  Secondly, while McGwire was the first of the suspected users to come up for election, he won’t be the last and they are coming soon.  I seriously don’t see how the BBWAA can justify keeping Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens out of the HOF, given the numbers they put up before they “allegedly” started using PEDs.  And once you let one in, you’ll have to let the rest in.

So, while it may not be this year, but McGwire will end up in Cooperstown someday.

Roberto Alomar

Like McGwire, Alomar, numbers wise, is a sure bet for the Hall of Fame, but there is that one incident that casts doubt upon his candidacy.  Unlike McGwire, Alomar apologized, took responsibility for what he had done, and has continued to make amends through charity work.

On the field, there was no doubt that Alomar belongs in the Hall of Fame.  Certainly one of the best second baseman of all time, he combined offense and defense at a position where few had done so before.

So there you have it.  The Class of 2010 (according to me) for the Baseball Hall of Fame.