Tag / Barry Bonds

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2024 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the recently completed baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr.

While Witt led the league in hitting while posting a 30-30 season and leading the surprising Royals back to the post-season, Judge’s 58 home runs and 1.159 OPS, the highest number since Barry Bonds in 2004, should take this with no problem.

Cy Young Award: Emmanuel Clase, Seth Lugo, Tarik Skubal

In his breakout season, Skubal looks like the logical choice, winning the AL triple crown by leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.

Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Matt Quatraro, Stephen Vogt

As usual, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Three teams from the AL Central made the post-season and all three of their skippers show up here.  I’m guessing that A.J. Hinch, whose Tigers were left for dead before going on a tremendous stretch run to get into the playoffs, will get the award.

Rookie of the Year: Colton Cowser, Luis Gil, Austin Wells

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  The two Yankees both had impressive stretches throughout the season but also faced significant struggles at times.  Cowser, meanwhile, tied for the rookie lead with 24 home runs and led AL rookies with a 123 OPS+, which should earn him the nod.

National League

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The Crime Dog Solves The Case

The new Contemporary Era Committee announced the results of their vote Sunday night, inducting former Cub first baseman Fred McGriff into the Hall of Fame with 100% of the vote.  McGriff, whose 18-year career also included tours with the Blue Jays, Padres, Braves, Devil Rays, and Dodgers, fell off the BBWAA ballot in 2019 after his tenth year, earning just 39.8% of the vote.

With the Cubs becoming surprise contenders in the 2001 season, they acquired McGriff from the Devil Rays.  The Crime Dog held up his part of the bargain down the stretch, putting up a .942 OPS with 12 home runs in 49 games with the Cubs.  Unfortunately, the pitching fell apart as the Cubs went 23-28 in August and September, finishing five games behind the Astros and Cardinals.  At age 38, McGriff returned to the Cubs in 2002, posting a .858 OPS and 125 OPS+ to go along with 30 homers and 103 runs batted in.  The rest of the Cubs, however, were butt, going through three managers and finishing with a 67-95 record.  McGriff became a free agent following the season.

Players needed twelve of the sixteen votes to gain election.  Don Mattingly finished second, with eight votes, followed by Curt Schilling, with seven, and Dale Murphy with six.  Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro each received fewer than four votes.

Fred McGriff’s numbers in games I’ve attended were:

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2023 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Holdovers

Yesterday, the BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2023.  The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 24th, with induction taking place July 23rd.  David Ortiz was elected in last year’s voting and notable PED suspects Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa fell off the ballot after reaching their ten-year limit, the new ballot contains fourteen holdovers along with another fourteen newcomers.  For the first time in a decade, the logjam caused by a combination of BBWAA rules limiting the number of votes on one ballot to ten and the ongoing refusal by some writers to vote for players tainted by PEDs has come to an end.

Let’s take a look at the returning candidates today before moving on to the newcomers tomorrow.

Bobby Abreu
Years on ballot: 3
2022 Percentage: 8.6

A miniscule decrease for Abreu last year means he is trending in the wrong direction.

Mark Buehrle
Years on ballot: 2
2022 Percentage: 5.8

A big drop left the former White Sox hurler on the precipice of getting dropped off the ballot.  With the logjam removed and spaces open on ballots that were full last year, we’ll see if he regains some support.

Todd Helton
Years on ballot: 4
2022 Percentage: 52.0

Helton seems to be moving on the right track, getting over 50% for the first time, but I don’t think this will be his year.  He should make it eventually though.

Torii Hunter
Years on ballot: 2
2022 Percentage: 5.3

Hunter had the lowest percentage of the vote while remaining on the ballot from last year’s election.  Things do not look good for the long time Twin and Angel.

Andruw Jones
Years on ballot: 5
2022 Percentage: 41.4

If voters were to stick to his first 11 seasons, Jones looks like a shoe-in for the Hall.  His last 7 seasons, though, were so bad that it makes it hard to consider him.  Despite another big increase in votes, those final seasons seem to be holding sway.

Jeff Kent
Years on ballot: 9
2022 Percentage: 32.7

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A Class Of One

With the unneeded lockout still in full effect, the baseball world had nothing to distract it yesterday from the small hamlet of Cooperstown in upstate New York, where the votes were tallied, and the 2021 Hall of Fame class completed with one additional member.  Former Red Sox DH David Ortiz scored 77.9% of the vote to earn enshrinement in his first election.

Six others tallied greater than 50% of the vote, led by Barry Bonds, who jumped up to 66% in his final go around on the ballot.  Roger Clemens was right behind him at 65.2% and will also leave his fate to the veteran’s committee.  Scott Rolen saw another big jump, rising to 63.2% and looks like he’s on track to eventually make it.  Curt Schilling, who threw a temper tantrum after not getting elected last year, saw a bit drop and ended his 10-year run with 58.6% of the vote.  Todd Helton and Billy Wagner continued to make strides, coming in at 52% and 51%, respectively, though Helton has more time on his side to make a good run towards induction.

On the local front, former White Sox outfielder Andruw Jones saw a large increase, going up to 41.1%.  Manny Ramirez, who spent a little more than a month with the White Sox, stayed about even, finishing with 28.9% of the vote thanks to his multiple PED suspensions.  The disgraced Omar Vizquel, who added sexual abuse of an autistic teen to the spousal abuse charges that had popped up the previous year, dropped even further, to 23.9%.  In his last go-around, former Cub superstar Sammy Sosa saw a small increase to 18.5%.  Jimmy Rollins, who spent the final 41 games of his career on the south side, picked up 9.4% in his first go-around.  Mark Buehrle saw his percentage cut in half, to 5.8%. but lives to fight another day.  Justin Morneau, who spent the final 58 games of his career with the White Sox, picked up 5 votes.  A.J. Pierzynski scored 2, while his former battery mate Jake Peavy was tossed a shutout.

Fifteen players will fall off the ballot, either due to reaching 10 years or failing to score 5% of the vote.

As for the newest Hall of Famer, I’ve seen Ortiz play 24 times, including the 2005 ALDS.  He joins Bud Fowler, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva and Buck O’Neil, who were elected by the veteran’s committees in December, in the class of 2022.  They will all get their day in the sun on Sunday, July 24.

David Ortiz’s numbers in games I’ve attended were: Continue reading →

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2022 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Newcomers

The BBWAA recently released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2022, with the results of the vote due to be revealed on January 25th with induction returning to its usual July weekend, July 24th to be precise.  With nobody elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 17 holdovers along with 13 newcomers.

Last week, we looked at the returning candidates.  Today, it’s time to look at the newcomers and who may be thankful come January.

Carl Crawford

He was never able to come close to the success he enjoyed as a Ray during the second part of his career.  I would doubt he makes it to a second election.

Prince Fielder

A neck injury ended his career prematurely, which didn’t give him enough of a chance to pile up the numbers that he would have needed for induction.

Ryan Howard

A late start to his career, winning the Rookie of the Year award in his age 25 season, will likely leave the longtime Phillie on the outside looking in.

Tim Lincecum

Lincecum had a 4 year peak that would stack up against anyone, but his career only lasted 10 years and those 6 non-peak years were middling at best and ugly at worst.

Justin Morneau

I mean, he had a nice career and all, with 1600 hits and 247 home runs, but no.

Joe Nathan

He is 8th on the all time saves list, but I don’t think that, or the World Series ring he got for 3 appearances with the 2016 Cubs at the end of his career, will put him over the top.

David Ortiz

OK, now things start to get interesting.  His 541 home runs would normally be a surefire ticket to entry, but there is a slight taint of PED use, right or wrong, to his career.  Will the writers, who have kept Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa, amongst others, out put Ortiz in?  My guess is yes.

Jonathan Papelbon

Yeah, that’s going to be a no.

Jake Peavy

Peavy ended up having a pretty nice career, but nice career’s do not get you to Cooperstown.

A.J. Pierzynski

At first glance, the easy answer is to say no.  But, his 19 year career behind the plate, where his most similar comparison is to Yadier Molina, who most people assume will get in easily once he is eligible, makes you wonder if he will get more support than you would initially think.

Alex Rodriguez

Yet another 10 year referendum on PEDs that we have to look forward to.  If I had to guess, and that is what I am doing here, I’m going to say he never gets in.

Jimmy Rollins

Rollins had a great career, but not enough to be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Mark Teixeira

He’s kind of borderline, but I don’t think he makes it.

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2022 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Holdovers

Earlier this week, the BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2022.  The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 25th, with induction taking place July 24th.  After nobody was elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 17 holdovers along with 13 newcomers.  With this being the last go-around for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa, all of whom are tainted by PEDs, and Curt Schilling, who is an ass, we may see the logjam caused by the current BBWAA rules, which limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10, and the ongoing refusal by some writers to vote for players tainted by PEDs, leaving too many qualified candidates fighting for limited spots, come to an end.

Let’s take a look at the returning candidates today before moving on to the newcomers.

Bobby Abreu
Years on ballot: 2
2021 Percentage: 8.7

A small 3.2% increase for Abreu, but I wouldn’t be making any travel plans to Cooperstown if I were him.

Barry Bonds
Years on ballot: 9
2021 Percentage: 61.8

I just can’t see the all time home run champion getting the increase he will need in his final shot with the baseball writers.

Mark Buehrle
Years on ballot: 1
2021 Percentage: 11.0

The former White Sox hurler picked up a surprisingly healthy amount of support in his first go-around.  I don’t expect he’ll make it, but I feel better about his chances to stay on the ballot than I did last year.

Roger Clemens
Years on ballot: 9
2021 Percentage: 61.6

Roger Clemens, he of the 354 career victories and 7 Cy Young awards, is likely to join Bonds on the outside looking in after his last run through this particular gauntlet.  Especially since, after many years of getting marginally more support than Bonds, they flipped spots last year.

Todd Helton
Years on ballot: 3
2021 Percentage: 44.9

A big 15.7% increase has Helton moving on the right track, as voters remember that it isn’t his fault he played in Colorado.

Tim Hudson
Years on ballot: 1
2021 Percentage: 5.2

The lowest vote getter to return for another shot, I imagine he’ll get a little more support, but not much.

Torii Hunter
Years on ballot: 1
2021 Percentage: 9.5

Things do not look good for the long time Twin and Angel.

Andruw Jones
Years on ballot: 4
2021 Percentage: 33.9

If voters were to stick to his first 11 seasons, Jones looks like a shoe-in for the Hall.  His last 7 seasons, though, were so bad that it makes it hard to consider him.  Despite a 14.5% increase in votes, those final seasons seem to be holding sway.

Jeff Kent
Years on ballot: 8
2021 Percentage: 32.4

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An Empty Class

All eyes turned towards the small hamlet of Cooperstown, New York last Tuesday, as the votes were tallied and, for the first time since 2013, the 2021 Hall of Fame class was found to have no members.  Curt Schilling led all vote getters with 71.1% of the vote, 3.9% shy of the 75% required for induction.

Three others tallied greater than 50% of the vote, led by Barry Bonds, who saw a slight increase up to 61.8%.  Roger Clemens was right behind him at 61.6% and, with only one more go around each, it seems unlikely that either will make it via the BBWAA.  Scott Rolen saw a big jump, rising to 52.9% and looks like he’s on track to eventually make it.

Omar Vizquel, who was on the upswing and looked to be on a good trajectory, dropped back down under 50% after allegations of spousal abuse popped up last year.

Mark Buehrle scored the highest amongst the newcomers, with 11%.  Torii Hunter and Tim Hudson are the other two newcomers who live to fight another day, surpassing the 5% cutoff.  Of the local contingent, former White Sox outfielder Andruw Jones jumped up to 33.9% while Manny Ramirez finished with the same 28.2% as last year.  Cub outcast Sammy Sosa garnered 17.0%, while his former teammates Aramis Ramirez and LaTroy Hawkins pulled in 1% and 0.5% respectively.  Former White Sox outfielder Nick Swisher got no votes, which seems about right.

Schilling, in an effort to prove that he is the garbage human being that he shows to the world on social media, released a letter after the vote was announced asking to no longer be considered for the Hall.  “I’ll defer to the veterans committee and men whose opinions actually matter and who are in a position to actually judge a player,” he wrote, denigrating the BBWAA and the entire election process.  Personally, I hope they leave him on the ballot and that nobody votes for him.

While there is no class of 2021, there will still be an election ceremony this summer, as the class of 2020, Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons, and Marvin Miller, get their day in the sun, corona virus willing, on Sunday, July 25.

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2021 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Holdovers

Earlier this week, the BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2021. The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 26th, with induction hopefully taking place July 25th.  After Derek Jeter and Larry Walker were elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 14 holdovers along with 11 newcomers, which may potentially continue the logjam caused by the current BBWAA rules which limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10 and the ongoing refusal by some writers to vote for players tainted by PEDs, leaving too many qualified candidates fighting for limited spots.

Let’s take a look at the returning candidates today before moving on to the newcomers.

Bobby Abreu
Years on ballot: 1
2020 Percentage: 5.5

After just barely surviving for a second time through the process, I wouldn’t be making any travel plans to Cooperstown if I were Abreu.

Barry Bonds
Years on ballot: 8
2020 Percentage: 60.7

The all time home run champion saw his vote percentage rise for the sixth straight time last year, so the PED bias holding him back may be slightly subsiding.  But, with only 2 more shots with the writers, it would take a huge mindset change for him to get up to 75%.

Roger Clemens
Years on ballot: 8
2020 Percentage: 61.0

Roger Clemens, he of the 354 career victories and 7 Cy Young awards, also found himself with a another slight bump rise after his eighth run through the voting process.  For some odd reason, perhaps by having played for more teams, Clemens continues to get marginally more support than his fellow PED poster child Barry Bonds.

Todd Helton
Years on ballot: 2
2020 Percentage: 29.2

A nice increase in his second showing, but it looks like Helton’s going to suffer from the same Colorado bias as Larry Walker, who needed all 10 of his chances to get elected.

Andruw Jones
Years on ballot: 3
2020 Percentage: 19.4

If voters were to stick to his first 11 seasons, Jones looks like a shoe-in for the Hall.  His last 7 seasons, though, were so bad that it makes it hard to consider him.  Despite more than doubling his vote percentage, those final seasons seem to be holding sway.

Jeff Kent
Years on ballot: 7
2020 Percentage: 27.5

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Entering The Hall

All eyes turned towards the small hamlet of Cooperstown, New York yesterday, as the votes were tallied and two new members were announced as the Hall of Fame class of 2020: Derek Jeter and Larry Walker.  Jeter, in his first year of eligibility, came 1 vote short of joining his former teammate Mariano Rivera as the only players to be elected with 100% of the vote.  Walker, in his tenth and final year of eligibility, found himself on 76.6% of the ballots, 6 votes above the threshold for enshrinement.

Four others tallied greater than 50% of the vote, led by Curt Schilling, who jumped up to 70%.  Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds saw very modest increases, which makes their eventual induction by the BBWAA unlikely with only two more elections for each.  Omar Vizquel saw a nice increase in his third go-around, going from 42.8% to 52.6%.

Bobby Abreu is the only first timer who will return, earning 5.5% of the vote, just above the 5% cutoff.  Of the local contingent, former White Sox outfielder Manny Ramirez finished with 28.2%, Andruw Jones earned 19.4%, and Cub outcast Sammy Sosa garnered 13.9%.  Paul Konerko got a mere 10 votes, Alfonso Soriano got 6, and J.J. Putz and Adam Dunn snagged a vote apiece.

As for the newest Hall of Famers, I’ve seen Jeter play 18 times, followed by a mere 3 career games for Walker.  These two, along with Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller, who were elected by the Veteran’s Committee in December, will enter the Hall on Sunday, July 26.

Derek Jeter’s numbers in games I’ve attended were: Continue reading →

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2020 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Holdovers


baseballhofThe BBWAA recently released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2020. The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 21st, with induction taking place July 26th.  After Mariano Rivera, Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, and Roy Halladay were elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 14 holdovers along with 18 newcomers, which may potentially continue the logjam caused by the current BBWAA rules which limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10 and the ongoing refusal by some writers to vote for players tainted by PEDs, leaving too many qualified candidates fighting for limited spots.

Let’s take a look at the returning candidates today before moving on to the newcomers.

Barry Bonds
Years on ballot: 7
2019 Percentage: 59.1

The all time home run champion saw his vote percentage rise for the fifth straight time last year, so the PED bias holding him back may be slightly subsiding.  But, with only 3 more shots with the writers, it remains to be seen if he has enough time to get up to 75%.

Roger Clemens
Years on ballot: 7
2019 Percentage: 59.5

Roger Clemens, he of the 354 career victories and 7 Cy Young awards, also found himself with a fourth consecutive rise after his seventh run through the voting process.  For some odd reason, perhaps by having played for more teams, Clemens continues to get marginally more support than his fellow PED poster child Barry Bonds.

Todd Helton
Years on ballot: 1
2019 Percentage: 16.5

A fine first showing for Helton, but it looks like he’s going to suffer from the same Colorado bias as Larry Walker.

Andruw Jones
Years on ballot: 2
2019 Percentage: 7.5

If voters were to stick to his first 11 seasons, Jones looks like a shoe-in for the Hall.  His last 7 seasons, though, were so bad that it makes it hard to consider him.  Based on his initial vote total, those final seasons seem to be holding sway.

Jeff Kent
Years on ballot: 6
2019 Percentage: 18.1

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