Welcome to the first installment of what should become a recurring feature, taking a look back at some occurrence in the world, mostly sports, and trying to ascertain what the outcome would have been if just one thing, a decision or an outcome, went a different way.  We start in October 2003, with game six of the NLCS where one particular play, debated for years, may have turned the tide.

 

On October 14, 2003, the Cubs were five outs away from winning their first National League pennant since 1945. Mark Prior was on the mound for the Cubs and had retired eight straight batters into the eighth inning when Juan Pierre doubled, bringing Luis Castillo to the plate. On the eighth pitch of the at bat, Castillo hit a high foul ball down the left field line, heading towards the stands. Moises Alou tracked the ball and reached, when the ball was touched by a fan. A visibly upset Alou, along with Prior and Cub manager Dusty Baker, pleaded for a call of fan interference, but the umpires ruled that the ball had left the field of play. Castillo returned to the plate and, on the next pitch, walked on a wild pitch, allowing Pierre to advance to third.

Ivan Rodriguez then hit an 0-2 pitch for a single, knocking in Pierre and making the score 3-1. When the next batter, Miguel Cabrera, hit a shard ground ball to shortstop Alex Gonzalez, it looked like the rally was over, but, instead of turning the ready-made double play, Gonzalez booted the ball, loading the bases. Derrek Lee then drilled the next pitch for a double, knocking in Castillo and Rodriguez and tying the score 3-3. At this point, Baker emerged from the Cub dugout to remove Prior, but the damage had been done. The Marlins scored five more times, winning the game 8-3 and forcing a Game 7.

The following night, the Marlins completed the unlikely comeback, beating the Cubs 9-6 and going on the face the Yankees in the World Series. They would wind up winning that as well, defeating the Yankees in six games to take home their second title.

But what if Alou had made that catch? How would the rest of history play out? Let’s take a trip through the multiverse to see what the outcome would have been.

OK, so Alou makes the catch for the second out of the inning.  Let us assume Rodriguez still singles, scoring the speedy Pierre from second to make it a 3-1 game.  Let us also assume Cabrera hits the same grounder to Alex Gonzalez, but, without the pressure of trying to make up for the missed out, he fields it cleanly, retiring Cabrera and ending the inning. Continue reading →