Welcome to the first installment of what should become a recurring feature, taking a look back at some occurrence in the world, mostly sports, and trying to ascertain what the outcome would have been if just one thing, a decision or an outcome, went a different way. We start in October 2003, with game six of the NLCS where one particular play, debated for years, may have turned the tide.
On October 14, 2003, the Cubs were five outs away from winning their first National League pennant since 1945. Mark Prior was on the mound for the Cubs and had retired eight straight batters into the eighth inning when Juan Pierre doubled, bringing Luis Castillo to the plate. On the eighth pitch of the at bat, Castillo hit a high foul ball down the left field line, heading towards the stands. Moises Alou tracked the ball and reached, when the ball was touched by a fan. A visibly upset Alou, along with Prior and Cub manager Dusty Baker, pleaded for a call of fan interference, but the umpires ruled that the ball had left the field of play. Castillo returned to the plate and, on the next pitch, walked on a wild pitch, allowing Pierre to advance to third.
Ivan Rodriguez then hit an 0-2 pitch for a single, knocking in Pierre and making the score 3-1. When the next batter, Miguel Cabrera, hit a shard ground ball to shortstop Alex Gonzalez, it looked like the rally was over, but, instead of turning the ready-made double play, Gonzalez booted the ball, loading the bases. Derrek Lee then drilled the next pitch for a double, knocking in Castillo and Rodriguez and tying the score 3-3. At this point, Baker emerged from the Cub dugout to remove Prior, but the damage had been done. The Marlins scored five more times, winning the game 8-3 and forcing a Game 7.
The following night, the Marlins completed the unlikely comeback, beating the Cubs 9-6 and going on the face the Yankees in the World Series. They would wind up winning that as well, defeating the Yankees in six games to take home their second title.
But what if Alou had made that catch? How would the rest of history play out? Let’s take a trip through the multiverse to see what the outcome would have been.
OK, so Alou makes the catch for the second out of the inning. Let us assume Rodriguez still singles, scoring the speedy Pierre from second to make it a 3-1 game. Let us also assume Cabrera hits the same grounder to Alex Gonzalez, but, without the pressure of trying to make up for the missed out, he fields it cleanly, retiring Cabrera and ending the inning.
Closer Joe Borowski enters the game to finish things off in the ninth, making quick work of the Marlins and preserving the victory, giving the Cubs their first trip to the World Series since 1945. On October 18, four days after their Game 6 victory over the Marlins, the Cubs traveled to New York to face the Yankees in the first of a seven-game series. Thanks to the good folks at Out of the Park Baseball, we are able to simulate how that series would have played out.
Game 1 in the Bronx features a pitching matchup of Kerry Wood versus Mike Mussina. The Cubs jumped out to an early lead with two in the first and then cruised to victory behind Wood, who gave up just two runs on three hits over 8 2/3 innings. Joe Borowski recorded the final out and picked up the save in the 6-2 victory, giving the Cubs a 1-0 series lead.
Mark Prior, fresh after his victory in Game 6 of the NLCS, faces Andy Pettitte in Game 2. This time the Yankees jump out to the early lead, scoring twice in each of the first two innings. Prior gave up seven runs in five innings, while Pettitte threw a complete game, which the Yankees won 7-1. After two games, the World Series is knotted up at a game apiece.
The action then moved to the North side of Chicago for Game 3, with a battle of young versus old as Carlos Zambrano faced off against Roger Clemens. The game was tied at one entering the sixth inning, when things fell apart for Zambrano and the Cubs. The Yankees offense exploded for ten runs in the sixth and added another seven in the seventh en route to a 19-2 victory. Jason Giambi led the barrage with three hits, two of which left the ballpark.
Fortunes changed a bit for Game 4, as Matt Clement took the mound to face David Wells. The Cubs knocked Wells out before he could record an out in the third inning, thanks to a three-run homer from Aramis Ramirez, scoring six runs total. That was more than enough for Clement, who cruised through the game, giving up just four hits in eight innings as the Cubs tied things up 2-2 while winning the game 6-3.
Game 5 was a rematch of the opening contest, but, unfortunately for the Cubs, the outcome was not the same. Kerry Wood could not record a single out in the second inning, giving up four hits while walking four, leading to seven runs crossing the plate. Mike Mussina scattered 11 hits for the Yankees, throwing a complete game and putting the Yankees one victory away from their 27th world championship.
The series moved back to the Bronx for Game 6, in what turned out to be the lowest scoring game of the series. The game was scoreless through five, before a Jason Giambi sacrifice fly in the sixth gave the Yankees the lead, one they would not relinquish. They added another two-spot in the eighth for some insurance and then closed things out in the ninth to win the 2003 World Series.
Would the Cubs front office approach the offseason any differently by losing the World Series versus losing the NLCS? It seems unlikely. They would still acquire Derrek Lee from the Marlins and sign free agents LaTroy Hawkins, Todd Hollandsworth, and Greg Maddux. Given that, the 2004 season would likely play out in the same way, with the Cubs falling apart down the stretch and missing the playoffs. Since the signing of Hawkins gave the team’s first round draft pick to the Twins and no one of consequence was selected with either that pick or the Marlins pick, changing draft position would not have changed things much, if at all.
From that point forward, things would play out exactly as they did for the Cubs. Since we’re assuming the Cubs still acquired Derrek Lee following the 2003 season, we must move forward thinking the Marlins still tore everything down, even though they did not win the World Series, so their history continues on as it did as well. It also seems unlikely that the Yankees would have approached things any differently had they won the 2003 World Series, so we can assume their future unfurled as it did, just with the extra title, giving them 28 overall. The biggest impact would come to the life of Steve Bartman, the fan who was seen as coming between Moises Alou and that foul ball. He was forced to go into hiding after the Cubs lost in 2003 and his identity became known. Had Alou made the catch, nobody would have ever found out his name and he would have lived a normal life.