The Non-Acting Oscar Predictions

side_oscarWith the Academy Awards scheduled for Sunday night, here’s my predictions for the non-acting awards.  I likely have seen very few of these movies, so I will mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth.

Best Original Screenplay

Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler

I haven’t seen any of these films yet.  If I had to guess, which I guess I do, I would think it will come down to either Birdman or Boyhood, and I’m going to go with the crew from Birdman.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jason Hall, American Sniper
Graham Moore, The Imitation Game
Paul Thomas Anderson, Inherent Vice
Anthony McCarten, The Theory of Everything
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Another category where I have not seen any of the nominated work.  I have heard nothing but good things about Whiplash, mostly from Balb Bryan of the Adam Carolla Show, so I will go with that.

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How To Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Obviously, The Lego Movie will take home this prize.  Wait, what?  It wasn’t nominated?  In that case, I’ll take a shot in the dark and say Big Hero 6 will take home the statue.

Best Cinematography

Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman
Robert Yeoman, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Łukasz Żal and Ryszard Lenczewski, Ida
Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
Roger A. Deakins, Unbroken

I haven’t even heard of a few of these, so I’m going to guess that The Grand Budapest Hotel will get some love here.

Best Costume Design

Milena Canonero, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mark Bridges, Inherent Vice
Colleen Atwood, Into the Woods
Anna B. Sheppard, Maleficent
Jacqueline Durran, Mr. Turner

I’m thinking Into the Woods will deliver a fairytale ending for Ms. Atwood.

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2014 Emmy Awards – Comedy

Emmy_statueWith the Emmy Awards scheduled for Monday night, here’s my predictions for the awards for Comedy shows.  I most likely have seen most of these shows, so, unlike my annual Oscar predictions, I will not mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth, but will have a somewhat informed decision.

Outstanding Comedy

The Big Bang Theory

Louie

Modern Family

Orange Is The New Black

Silicon Valley

Veep

Modern Family would be the obvious choice here, since the voters seem to love it.  But Veep is certainly my dark horse candidate, so I’ll go with that.

Outstanding Actress In A Comedy

Lena Dunham, Girls

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Taylor Schilling, Orange Is The New Black

Julia Louis-Dreyfus won this award last year, and I see no reason why she won’t repeat again this year.

Outstanding Actor In A Comedy

Ricky Gervais, Derek

William H. Macy, Shameless

Louis CK, Louie

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Once again, I am predicting a repeat of last year’s winner, with Jim Parsons bringing home the award again for his role as Sheldon on The Big Bang Theory.

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And The Oscar Goes To

side_oscarAs they finish polishing up the statues for tonight’s awards ceremony, it’s time to finish up our predictions, which are based on not having seen any of the nominated films, with a look at the acting categories and the big one:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

The race seems to be coming down to either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave.  As we discussed Friday, I think Gravity is going to clean up on the technical awards, but I think 12 Years a Slave will win the big award of the night.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

At some point over the past few years, Matthew McConaughey seems to have decided to take his acting game to another level.  Between his work in the indie Mud, a supporting turn in The Wolf of Wall Street, his likely Emmy-winning turn on True Detective, and his work here in Dallas Buyers Club, he seems to have taken the jump to the next level.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Cate Blanchett seems to have this one wrapped up, with the only thing standing in her way being the backlash against Woody Allen that started after the Golden Globes when allegations of his abusing his adpotive daughter heated back up again.

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The Lesser Oscar Predictions

side_oscarWith the Academy Awards scheduled for Sunday night, here’s my predictions for the non-acting awards.  I likely have seen very few of these movies, so I will mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth.

Best Original Screenplay

Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club

Spike Jonze, Her

Bob Nelson, Nebraska

I haven’t seen any of these films yet.  The backlash against Woody Allen after the Golden Globes will likely hurt him.  I’m thinking Spike Jonze’s tale of falling in love with a Siri-like AI will take home the prize.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight

Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Slave and The Wolf of Wall Street, with John Ridley taking home the Oscar for his adaptation of the 1853 memoir.

Best Animated Feature

Frozen

The Croods

The Wind Rises

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Again, I haven’t seen any of these and I’m likely not ever going to.  That said, Frozen appears to be a hit for the ages, so I’m going to go wih that.

Best Cinematography

Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster

Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity

Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis

Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska

Roger A. Deakins, Prisoners

The technical wizadry that was Gravity should have no problem taking home this prize.

Best Costume Design

Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle

William Chang Suk Ping, The Grandmaster

Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby

Michael O’Connor, The Invisible Woman

Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave

There’s nothing Oscar voters for this category like more than period pieces, and this year gives them many to choose from. My guess is that the Roaring 20s will rule the day and that The Great Gatsby will take home the prize.

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2013 Emmy Awards – Drama

With the Emmy Awards scheduled for Sunday night, it’s time for day three of my predictions for the awards, today focusing on Drama shows.  I most likely have seen most of these shows, so, unlike my annual Oscar predictions, I will not mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth, but will have a somewhat informed decision.

Outstanding Drama

Breaking Bad

Downton Abbey

Game of Thrones

House of Cards

Homeland

Mad Men

This is a tough one, as I can see either Breaking Bad, Downton Abbey, or Game of Thrones taking home the prize.  Given the amount of press it is getting in its now airing final season, my guess is that Breaking Bad takes home the prize.

Outstanding Actress In A Drama

Connie Britton, Nashville

Claire Danes, Homeland

Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey

Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel

Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Kerry Washington, Scandal

Robin Wright, House of Cards

I think Claire Danes will take this for the second year in a row.

Outstanding Actor In A Drama

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom

Jon Hamm, Mad Men

Damian Lewis, Homeland

Kevin Spacey, House of Cards

Damian Lewis took this award last year, but I think this will be Breaking Bad‘s night, which means that Bryan Cranston will have another trophy to lord over the Adam Carollas of the world.

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2013 Emmy Awards – Comedy

With the Emmy Awards scheduled for Sunday night, here’s my predictions for the awards for Comedy shows.  I most likely have seen most of these shows, so, unlike my annual Oscar predictions, I will not mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth, but will have a somewhat informed decision.

Outstanding Comedy

30 Rock

The Big Bang Theory

Girls

Louie

Modern Family

Veep

The sentimental favorite would be the final season of 30 Rock, but my feeling is it will end up being one of the two critical darlings, Louie or Girls.  I’m going to go with Louie, as there may be a backlash against Girls and Lena Dunham.

Outstanding Actress In A Comedy

Laura Dern, Enlightened

Lena Dunham, Girls

Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Tina Fey, 30 Rock

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep

Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

I think this category is where 30 Rock gets celebrated and creator, writer, and star Tina Fey will take home the statue.

Outstanding Actor In A Comedy

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Jason Bateman, Arrested Development

Louis CK, Louie

Don Cheadle, House of Lies

Matt LeBlanc, Episodes

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

While I can see Jason Bateman pulling an upset, I think the Netflix-based release of Arrested Development will work against him here.  My guess is Jim Parsons takes home the hardware for his role on the top rated comedy on television.

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Mix Tape Monday – Rap 2

After my tape deck crapped out in 1997, I was stuck listening to either the radio or full albums in whatever order the artist intended. That all changed in 2001, when the new-fangled MP3 technology got combined with my new CD burner.

In addition to the occasional series of CDs I had burned in order to keep abreast of new music, I had created a bunch of genre-specific mixes that could be used both in the car and at the gym. This week we will take a look at the second disc covering the world of rap and hip hop music, with a very strong focus on the late 80s and early 90s.  So, without further ado, I present Rap, volume 2.

Positive K – I Got A Man

The one hit wonder peaked at #14 on the Billboard Hot 100 in early 1993.

iTunes stats: 8 plays, most recently on 8/22/2012

Nelly – Ride Wit Me

This hit from 2001 has not aged particularly well.

iTunes stats: 3 plays, most recently on 1/10/2009

Eminem – Lose Yourself

Spent 12 weeks at #1, won 2 Grammy awards, and won an Oscar.

iTunes stats: 20 plays, most recently on 2/25/2013

Naughty By Nature – O.P.P.

According to Allmusic, “there was not a bigger, more contagious crossover radio smash in the autumn of 1991.”

iTunes stats: 6 plays, most recently on 3/29/2013

Sir Mix-A-Lot – Baby Got Back

The video was briefly banned by MTV before it became a huge sensation.

iTunes stats: 11 plays, most recently on 2/6/2013

Onyx – Slam

Released on May 11, 1993 it was Onyx’s breakthrough single, making it to #4 on the US Billboard Hot 100 and was the group’s second straight single to make it to #1 on the Rap charts.

iTunes stats: 12 plays, most recently on 2/18/2013

The Fat Boys and Chubby Checker – The Twist

The rap version of Chubby Checker’s hit song reached #2 in the UK, #16 in the US, and #1 in Germany and Switzerland.

iTunes stats: 4 plays, most recently on 1/7/2011

Run-DMC – Walk This Way

The Aerosmith cover is often credited as helping break rap into mainstream pop music, as it was the first rap song to hit the Top 5 in The Billboard Hot 100,

iTunes stats: 11 plays, most recently on 2/21/2013

Coolio featuring LV – Gangsta’s Paradise

The biggest-selling single of 1995 was featured on the Dangerous Minds soundtrack.

iTunes stats: 14 plays, most recently on 1/28/2013

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Mix Tape Monday – Cool Tracks

After my tape deck crapped out in 1997, I was stuck listening to either the radio or full albums in whatever order the artist intended. That all changed in 2001, when the new-fangled MP3 technology got combined with my new CD burner.

In addition to the occasional series of CDs I had burned in order to keep abreast of new music, I had created a bunch of genre-specific mixes that could be used both in the car and at the gym. This week we will take a look at the first disc covering the world of 60s and 70s rock music. This CD was kind of a counterpart to the ballads disc we covered a few weeks back, with most of the songs coming from the same era but with a decidedly harder bent.  So, without further ado, I bring you Cool Tracks, volume 1.

Paul McCartney & Wings – Live And Let Die

Became the first James Bond theme song to be nominated for an Academy Award for Best Original Song.

iTunes stats: 6 plays, most recently on 3/19/2013

Blood Sweat & Tears – Spinning Wheel

Nominated for three Grammy Awards at the 1970 ceremony, it won for Best Instrumental Arrangement.

iTunes stats: 7 plays, most recently on 3/22/2013

Warren Zevon – Werewolves Of London

BBC Radio 2 listeners rated it as having the best opening line in a song.

iTunes stats: 6 plays, most recently on 7/5/2011

Chicago – 25 Or 6 To 4

The song was released as a single in June of 1970, climbing to number 4 on the U.S. Billboard Hot 100 chart.

iTunes stats: 1 play, on 6/17/2010

The Jimi Hendrix Experience – Purple Haze

Rolling Stone magazine placed the song at number 17 in their list of the 500 Greatest Songs of All Time and also at number 2 on their list of the 100 Greatest Guitar Songs of All Time.

iTunes stats: 1 play, on 5/29/2009

Jefferson Airplane – Somebody To Love

Originally recorded by 1960s folk rock band The Great Society, featuring Grace Slick’s brother-in-law.

iTunes stats: 3 plays, most recently on 7/6/2011

Patti Smith – Because The Night

Originally recorded by Bruce Springsteen during sessions for his Darkness on the Edge of Town album, he was not satisfied with it so the song was passed to the Patti Smith Group, who were working in the studio next door.

iTunes stats: 4 plays, most recently on 11/9/2012

Ohio Players – Love Rollercoaster

Urban legend says that the scream heard in the background belonged to a woman being murdered at the studio.

iTunes stats: 2 plays, most recently on 3/24/2011

Five Man Electrical Band – Signs

The song was released during an era of social and political change, and its lyrics carry themes of intolerance and exclusion.

iTunes stats: 3 plays, most recently on 3/11/2013

Janis Joplin – Piece Of My Heart

Originally recorded by Erma Franklin in 1967 as a romantic love song.

iTunes stats: 4 plays, most recently on 12/27/2012

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Mix Tape Monday – Ballads

After my tape deck crapped out in 1997, I was stuck listening to either the radio or full albums in whatever order the artist intended. That all changed in 2001, when the new-fangled MP3 technology got combined with my new CD burner.

In addition to the occasional series of CDs I had burned in order to keep abreast of new music, I had created a bunch of genre-specific mixes that could be used both in the car and at the gym. This week we will take a look at the disc covering the world of (mostly) 70s ballads and love songs.  Many of these songs are not ones that a man in my position is “supposed” to enjoy, but occassionaly one wants to turn down the hard rock and roll and mellow out with a good tune.  So, without further ado, I bring you Ballads, volume 1.

Neil Diamond – Cracklin Rosie

From 1970, this was Neil Diamond’s first #1 hit in the good ol’ US of A.

iTunes stats: 4 plays, most recently on 2/23/2011

BJ Thomas – Another Somebody Done Somebody Wrong Song

From 1975, this tune became the longest titled #1 in the history of Billboard’s Hot 100.

iTunes stats: 3 plays, most recently on 7/21/2011

Billy Joel – Piano Man

From 1973, this was Billy Joel’s first hit and peaked at #25 on the American pop charts.

iTunes stats: 3 plays, most recently on 2/1/2013

Barry Manilow – Mandy

Originally titled Brandy, Barry Manilow changed the name when he covered it in 1974 to avoid confusion with Looking Glass’s Brandy (You’re a Fine Girl).

iTunes stats: 5 plays, most recently on 2/8/2013

The Carpenters – Rainy Days And Mondays

Released in 1971, the song did not chart in the UK until 1993.

iTunes stats: 1 play, on 1/27/2011

Rupert Holmes – Escape (The Pina Colada Song)

Released in September 1979, it wound up being the last U.S. number one song of the 1970s.

iTunes stats: 2 plays, most recently on 7/13/2012

Eric Carmen – All By Myself

From 1975, this was Carmen’s first solo release after leaving the Raspberries.

iTunes stats: Never played

Neil Diamond – Sweet Caroline

The stadium sing-a-long was released in 1969 and again in 1972.

iTunes stats: 2 plays, most recently on 7/30/2012

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Oscar Night

As they finish polishing up the statues for tonight’s awards ceremony, it’s time to finish up our predictions with a look at the acting categories and the big one:

Best Picture

Amour

Argo

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

The early money was on either Lincoln or Zero Dark Thirty taking home the big prize, but Argo has been raking up Best Picture wins starting with the Golden Globes and has momentum on its side.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

While Lincoln may have fallen out of favor in the Best Picture race, this is still Daniel Day-Lewis’ trophy to lose.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

In my mind, this comes down to Jessica Chastain or Jennifer Lawrence. Not having seen either performance, my gut tells me that the backlash against Zero Dark Thirty hurts Chastain here and that Jennifer Lawrence brings home the Oscar.

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