And The Nominees Are

side_oscarThe 95th Academy Awards are going down Sunday night and, after a year break, my woeful predictions are back.  I don’t know that I’ve heard of many of these movies let alone seen them, so, with less basis in fact than most years, here’s my uneducated predictions for the non-acting awards.

Best Original Screenplay

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kusher, The Fablemans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

I’ve seen none of these films, but Everything Everywhere All at Once seems to be the hot property, so I’m going to go with that.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Who doesn’t love a good war movie?

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

My best guess, having seen none of these fine films, is that Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio wins the day.

Best Cinematography

James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Mandy Walker, Elvis
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Florian Hoffmeister, Tár

Seems like I’m going all in with the war movie.

Best Costume Design

Mary Zophres, Babylon
Ruth Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin, Elvis
Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Hamm Goes to Paris

Well, I’ve seen one of these films, so let’s go with that one.

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And The Oscar Goes To

side_oscarAs they finish polishing up the statues for tonight’s awards ceremony, it’s time to finish up our predictions with the major categories.  In a strange change of pace, I’ve actually seen one or two of these.  So, without further ado, we begin with:

Best Picture

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

I’ve seen a grand total of one of these, so I’ll go with Green Book, which won the Golden Globe.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Having not seen any of these, I guess I’ll pick Christian Bale.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Lady Gaga might be the safe bet, but I’ve heard nothing but rave reviews for Olivia Colman’s work in The Favourite, so I’m going to go with her.

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The Envelope Please

side_oscarThe 91st Academy Awards are going down Sunday night, so here’s my uneducated predictions for the non-acting awards. I have seen a couple of these movies, so I will still mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth with just a little bit of personal experience.

Best Original Screenplay

Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

I’ve seen none of these films, so this is a total shot in the dark, but I’m going The Favourite, hoping it is the favorite.  (See what I did there?)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters, A Star Is Born

Again, I haven’t seen any of these, but my guess is that Barry Jenkins will take home the award, based on word of mouth.

Best Animated Feature

Incredibles 2
Isle Of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks The Internet
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

Hey, I finally saw one of the nominated films, but not the one I’m picking to win.  By all accounts, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is a sensational film, one which I need to see sooner or later, and it should take home this prize.

Best Cinematography

Lukasz Zal, Cold War
Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Matthew Libatique, A Star Is Born

Well, again I’ve seen none of these, so I will go with the latest remake of A Star Is Born.

Best Costume Design

Mary Zophres, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther
Sandy Powell, The Favourite
Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
Alexandra Byrne, Mary Queen of Scots

Typically, I would go for one of the historical films to take home this prize, but I’m hoping that Black Panther breaks through and scores a well-deserved win.

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And The Oscar Goes To

side_oscarAs they finish polishing up the statues for tonight’s awards ceremony, it’s time to finish up our predictions, which are based on not having seen any of the nominated films, with a look at the acting categories and the big one:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

The race seems to be coming down to either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave.  As we discussed Friday, I think Gravity is going to clean up on the technical awards, but I think 12 Years a Slave will win the big award of the night.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

At some point over the past few years, Matthew McConaughey seems to have decided to take his acting game to another level.  Between his work in the indie Mud, a supporting turn in The Wolf of Wall Street, his likely Emmy-winning turn on True Detective, and his work here in Dallas Buyers Club, he seems to have taken the jump to the next level.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Cate Blanchett seems to have this one wrapped up, with the only thing standing in her way being the backlash against Woody Allen that started after the Golden Globes when allegations of his abusing his adpotive daughter heated back up again.

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The Lesser Oscar Predictions

side_oscarWith the Academy Awards scheduled for Sunday night, here’s my predictions for the non-acting awards.  I likely have seen very few of these movies, so I will mostly be going on gut feel and word of mouth.

Best Original Screenplay

Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle

Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club

Spike Jonze, Her

Bob Nelson, Nebraska

I haven’t seen any of these films yet.  The backlash against Woody Allen after the Golden Globes will likely hurt him.  I’m thinking Spike Jonze’s tale of falling in love with a Siri-like AI will take home the prize.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, and Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight

Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena

John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave

Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street

Slave and The Wolf of Wall Street, with John Ridley taking home the Oscar for his adaptation of the 1853 memoir.

Best Animated Feature

Frozen

The Croods

The Wind Rises

Despicable Me 2

Ernest & Celestine

Again, I haven’t seen any of these and I’m likely not ever going to.  That said, Frozen appears to be a hit for the ages, so I’m going to go wih that.

Best Cinematography

Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster

Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity

Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis

Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska

Roger A. Deakins, Prisoners

The technical wizadry that was Gravity should have no problem taking home this prize.

Best Costume Design

Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle

William Chang Suk Ping, The Grandmaster

Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby

Michael O’Connor, The Invisible Woman

Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave

There’s nothing Oscar voters for this category like more than period pieces, and this year gives them many to choose from. My guess is that the Roaring 20s will rule the day and that The Great Gatsby will take home the prize.

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