As they finish polishing up the statues for tonight’s awards ceremony, it’s time to finish up our predictions, which are based on not having seen any of the nominated films, with a look at the acting categories and the big one:

Best Picture

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

The race seems to be coming down to either Gravity or 12 Years a Slave.  As we discussed Friday, I think Gravity is going to clean up on the technical awards, but I think 12 Years a Slave will win the big award of the night.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

At some point over the past few years, Matthew McConaughey seems to have decided to take his acting game to another level.  Between his work in the indie Mud, a supporting turn in The Wolf of Wall Street, his likely Emmy-winning turn on True Detective, and his work here in Dallas Buyers Club, he seems to have taken the jump to the next level.

Best Actress

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

Cate Blanchett seems to have this one wrapped up, with the only thing standing in her way being the backlash against Woody Allen that started after the Golden Globes when allegations of his abusing his adpotive daughter heated back up again.

Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

There are a few tried and true roles to take in order to get recognized by the Academy.  For women, giving a gritty portrayal as a prostitue is usally the way to go.  For men, playing a cross dresser is usually a sure thing.  I expect Jared Leto to follow that path and bring home the prize.

Best Supporting Actress

Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

June Squibb, Nebraska

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

The pundits have this race coming down to Lupita Nyong’o and Jennifer Lawrence, and I don’t see the Academey honoring a young actress like Lawrence two years in a row.

Best Director

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

My guess is that Alfonso Cuarón takes home the prize for the technical achievement that was Gravity.