2013 Predictions Revisited

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersBack in April, on the eve of the 2013 baseball season, I looked into my crystal ball and tried to predict the outcomes of the division races and the major awards.  Now that the season has come to an end the playoffs are in full swing, let’s take a look back at how things unfolded and how wrong my predictions were.

American League

East: Rays

Nobody really predicted the Red Sox bouncing back from their miserable 2012 campaign and winning the division this year.  The Rays, meanwhile, managed to beat the Rangers in the tie-breaker game and make it as the second wild card.

Central: Tigers

This one was practically a no-brainer, although the Indians did make a race of it.

West: Angels

The Angels once again made a huge splash in the free agency market and then underachieved miserably during the season.  The A’s, despite their precarious stadium and underfunded roster, took the division handily.

Wild Cards: Blue Jays, A’s

Despite totally remaking their roster, the Blue Jays failed to reach the playoffs once again.  The Indians and the Rays were the actual wild card teams.  Overall, for the AL, I managed to get one division winner correct and 3 of the 5 playoff teams correct.

National League

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All Time Team Records

As we head into the 2013 season, here all the all-time team records in games that I have attended.

All-Time Team Records

Team Won Lost Winning Pctg
California Angels 1 0 1.000
Arizona Diamondbacks 12 2 0.857
Florida Marlins 15 8 0.652
Philadelphia Phillies 10 6 0.625
Toronto Blue Jays 9 6 0.600
Chicago White Sox 209 171 0.550
Colorado Rockies 7 6 0.538
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 14 12 0.538
New York Yankees 9 8 0.529
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2012 Predictions Revisited

Exactly six months ago, I looked into my crystal ball and tried to predict the outcomes of the upcoming baseball season.  Now that the season has come to an end, and half of my predicted divison winners are headed home instead of the playoffs, let’s take a look back at how things unfolded.

American League

East: Yankees

The Yankees went down to the wire, not with the Red Sox as expected, but with the surprising Orioles.

Central: Tigers

After picking up free agent Prince Fielder, the Tigers were expected to run away with the Central division.  Instead, they underachieved much of the season and battled the overachieving White Sox for most of the season.  However, a late season collapse by the White Sox offense helped the Tigers take the division.

West: Angels

The Angels just may have been the biggest disappointment in the league this year. After dropping over $330 million in one day on Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, the Angels were expected to be at the top of the heap this year.  Unfortunately, things just did not work out and, even with the addition of rookie of the year shoo-in Mike Trout, the Angels were unable to make a serious run and finished in third place, behind the surging A’s, who swept the Rangers in the last series of the season to take the division title.

Wild Cards: Rays, Rangers

The Orioles and the Rangers will face off in the first wild card play-in game.

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2012 Final Standings

Another disappointing season comes to an end today.  The White Sox, who spent 126 days in first place, sputtered through September and dropped to second place.  The Cubs managed to lose 100 games for the first time since 1966.

TeamCity TeamName Won Loss Winning Pctg
Washington Nationals 1 0 1.000
Colorado Rockies 1 0 1.000
Kansas City Royals 1 0 1.000
Boston Red Sox 2 1 0.667
Tampa Bay Rays 2 1 0.667
Chicago White Sox 18 13 0.581
Oakland A’s 1 1 0.500
Houston Astros 1 1 0.500
Toronto Blue Jays 1 1 0.500
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All Star Break Standings

As we head in to the All Star Break, the White Sox are in first place and I’ve been to 20 games.  Here’s the team’s records for those 20 games.

TeamCity TeamName Won Loss Winning Pctg
Washington Nationals 1 0 1.000
Kansas City Royals 1 0 1.000
Boston Red Sox 2 1 0.667
Chicago White Sox 12 8 0.600
Seattle Mariners 1 1 0.500
Houston Astros 1 1 0.500
Toronto Blue Jays 1 1 0.500
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Nostradamus Wept – NL Edition

With 81 games in the books, we are officially at the halfway point of the 2012 season.  The so-called experts at Sports Illustrated made some pre-season predictions that are looking a little off a this point.

Team Won Lost

Predicted

Wins

Predicted

Losses

Comments
NL East
Washington Nationals 47 32 84 78

The Nationals were expected to improve this year, but they appear to have taken a giant leap forward.

New York Mets 44 38 75 87 One of the surprises of the first half, the Mets were thought to be also-rans following their off-season ownership troubles.
Atlanta Braves 42 39 82 80 The Braves have kept a steady ship following last season’s late collapse.
Miami Marlins 39 42 89 73 The Fish surrounded a great May with struggles in April and June.
Philadelphia Phillies 37 46 94 68 Injuries to Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Roy Halladay have kept the Phillies out of their usual spot in the pennant chase.
NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates 45 36 70 92 Last year the Pirates flirted with respectability for the first time since 1992 before faltering after one bad call cost them a game.  This year, they may be for real.
Cincinnati Reds 44 37 89 73 The Reds are right at their expected pace.
St. Louis Cardinals 43 39 87 75 The defending champions have dealt with the loss of Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter better than anyone expected them to.
Milwaukee Brewers 38 43 84 78 After finally winning the NL Central last year, the Brewers have struggled after losing Prince Fielder.
Houston Astros 32 50 57 105 The rebuilding Astros have been a little better than expected in their final season in the National League.
Chicago Cubs 31 50 66 96 The rebuilding Cubs have been a little worse than expected in Theo Epstein’s first year as the savior of the franchise.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers 46 37 83 79 The Dodgers had a surprising first half, sparked on by their ownership change.
San Francisco Giants 45 37 90 72 The Giants have had an eventful first half, with a perfect game and 4 straight shutouts.
Arizona Diamondbacks 39 42 88 74 The DBacks struggled in the first half, and that was before losing Daniel Hudson for the season.
San Diego Padres 33 50 70 92 The Padres have been a little worse than expected in the first half.
Colorado Rockies 31 50 79 83 The Rockies have struggled in the first half and have turned to a 4 man rotation to try and turn things around.

 

All Time Team Records

Heading into the 2012 season, here all the all-time team records in games that I have attended.

All-Time Team Records

Team Won Lost Winning Pctg
California Angels 1 0 1.000
Arizona Diamondbacks 12 2 0.857
Florida Marlins 15 8 0.652
Philadelphia Phillies 10 6 0.625
Toronto Blue Jays 8 5 0.615
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 13 10 0.565
Chicago White Sox 191 158 0.547
New York Yankees 9 8 0.529
Chicago Cubs 188 168 0.528
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2011 Final Standings

I “only” went to 43 games this year, the ninth highest total of my life, and only hit the two local stadiums.

TeamCity TeamName Won Loss Winning Pctg
Los Angeles Angels 2 0 1.000
Detroit Tigers 3 0 1.000
New York Yankees 1 0 1.000
Boston Red Sox 2 1 0.667
Baltimore Orioles 2 1 0.667
Chicago White Sox 24 18 0.571
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End Of An Era

Disappointing seasons up to this point means that both the White Sox (somewhat) and Cubs (completely) are sellers at the trade deadline.  The White Sox struck first, shipping Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen to the Blue Jays for Jason Frasor and a minor league pitcher on Wednesday.  The Cubs followed up yesterday, shipping the underachieving and overpaid Kosuke Fukudome to the Indians for two unheralded minor leaguers, while still paying most of his remaining salary.

Jackson came to the White Sox at the trade deadline last season in a controversial trade that sent top pitching prospect Dan Hudson to the Diamondbacks.  Expectations at the time was that it was a move made in anticipation of a trade for Adam Dunn, as the Nationals were reportedly interested in Jackson.  When he wasn’t flipped to Washington, Jackson settled in to the White Sox rotation and did what he always did: fought through bouts of wildness to go along with his flashes of brilliance.  In the 7 starts I saw him make as a member of the White Sox, Jackson was 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA.

Teahen’s stay on the south side was slightly longer, and filled with a little less controversy.  Acquired from the Royals for Chris Getz and Josh Fields before the 2010 season, he was immediately signed to a long term extension.  A bad back made his defense at third base a travesty and, when he hit the DL last summer with a broken hand, the team immediately went on their hottest streak of the season.  I saw him appear in 37 games in his White Sox career, hitting a pedestrial .244 with 0 home runs, 8 doubles, and 5 RBI. 

When Fukudome signed out of the Japanese leagues, he was supposed to follow in the footsteps of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui.  He specifically chose the Cubs over other suitors, including the White Sox, because he would be their first Japanese player.  The fans ate him up, especially after he hit a walkoff home run in his first opening day as a member of the Cubs.  Unfortunately, it was all down hill from there.  After parlaying a good April into an All Star appearance, Fukudome struggled the rest of the rest of the season, eventually playing his way out of the starting lineup.  The same formula continued for the rest of his time on the North Side.  A strong start, then the long fade through the summer months.  It’s not that he was bad, but he was worth nowhere near what he was making.  In 80 career appearances as a Cub, he hit .257 in games I attended, with 1 HR, 17 doubles, 3 triples, and 20 RBI.

2011 Halfway Point

A disappointing first half of the baseball season came to an end (a few weeks back).  Hopes of a pennant chase have thus far been thwarted by an anemic offense that is threatening to break some long held records, and not the good kind.

2011 Team Records
Team Won Loss Winning Pctg
Texas Rangers 1 0 1.000
LA Angels 2 0 1.000
Detroit Tigers 2 0 1.000
Baltimore Orioles 2 1 0.667
Chicago White Sox 15 12 0.556
Washington Nationals 1 1 0.500
Oakland Athletics 1 1 0.500
Minnesota Twins 1 1 0.500
Chicago Cubs 3 3 0.500
Tampa Bay Rays 0 3 0.000
Seattle Mariners 0 1 0.000
Pittsburgh Pirates 0 1 0.000
LA Dodgers 0 2 0.000
Kansas City Royals 0 1 0.000
Cleveland Indians 0 1 0.000

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