2022 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani

Had Shohei Ohtani not had the season he had last year, he would easily walk away with this award.  But, as they say, familiarity builds, if not contempt, at least complacency. So Aaron Judge, who broke the American League home run record, will take home the prize.

Cy Young Award: Dylan Cease, Alek Manoah, Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery at age 39 and won 18 games while posting a 1.75 ERA.  Seems a little suspicious to my eyes, but he will easily take home this award.

Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Brandon Hyde, Scott Servais

As usual, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Scott Servais should have won this award last year, but I don’t think he will make up for it this year.  Brandon Hyde led the Orioles to a 31-game improvement over the previous year and their first winning season since 2016.  That should get him the award.

Rookie of the Year: Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  While all three had very successful seasons, my guess would be that Julio Rodriguez brings this award back to Seattle.

National League

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2022 Predictions Revisited

Six months ago, at the dawn of the lockout-delayed 2022 baseball season, I made my annual predictions as to who would win what.  With the regular season coming to an end today, it is time revisit those predictions and see what, if anything, I got right.

American League

East: Blue Jays

Well, that’s one down.  The Yankees have owned the division pretty much from day one.

Central: White Sox

After running away with the Central Division in 2021, the White Sox were a consensus pick to repeat.  Unfortunately, the baseball gods had other ideas.  While the White Sox struggled all year to put things together, the Guardians hung around long enough to get really hot in September and run away with the division.

West: Astros

Hey, here’s one I got right.  The Astros once again find themselves at the top of the division, winning their fifth title in six years.

Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels, Red Sox

The AL East was particularly strong this year, as both the Blue Jays and the Rays make it to the expanded Wild Card round.  Rounding things out are the Mariners, who make the postseason for the first time since 2001 after missing out on the final day of the season last year.

AL Champion: Yankees

The Yankees have struggled in the second half, so they aren’t the locks they looked like early in the year.  At this point, you have to assume the Astros are the team to beat.

Cy Young: Lucas Giolito

That seems very unlikely.  Justin Verlander seems like the popular choice, with Dylan Cease and Shohei Ohtani likely to also get support.

MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Aaron Judge already has his name engraved on this award.

National League

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What’s New For 2022

With a new collective bargaining agreement in place and a shortened spring training due to the 99-day lockout, there are plenty of changes coming to MLB for this season and beyond.  It’s time to take a deeper dive into the new CBA and see what those changes are and what impact they may have on the game, intended or unintended.

The most expected outcome of the new CBA is the expansion of the designated hitter to the National League.  In addition to this, a new rule was added that if a team wants to have the same player (*cough*Ohtani*cough*) both pitch and hit, he may be his own DH and removing him as the pitcher will not impact him continuing on as the DH.

The postseason will be expanded to twelve teams, six from each league.  The two division winners with the best records will automatically advance to the Division Series.  The remaining division champion and the three wild card teams will face off in a three-game series.  There will not be any reseeding between the rounds.

Due to Canadian law, unvaccinated players will not be allowed to cross the border and, under the terms of the new CBA, they will not be paid or receive service time for the games missed.

The lowest level of the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) Threshold, which most teams use as a hard salary cap, will jump to $230M for 2022.  After that, there are three additional surcharge levels, which, at this point, should impact only the Dodgers, Mets, and Padres.

The minimum salary for players has increased to $700K for 2022 and will increase over each year of the CBA.  In addition, there is a new pre-arbitration bonus pool of $50M has been established to reward successful seasons by younger players under team control.  MVP and Cy Young winners would $2.5M while 2nd, 3rd, and 4/5th place finishers would receive $1.75M, $1.5M, and $1M respectively.  Rookie of the Year winners get $750K and 2nd place finishers would take home $500K.  Players named first team All-MLB get $1M while second team gets $500K.  The remaining pool of bonus money will be distributed based on WAR.  A single player can only receive one bonus per season.

Umpires will start using a microphone to announce replay review decisions to the crowd, helping fans better understand the outcomes of those reviews and why.

Double headers will move back to being nine-inning affairs.  The ghost runner starting on second base for extra-inning games was initially eliminated, but was re-instated for 2022 due to the shortened spring training and worries about the impacts of long games to pitching staffs.

Rosters will expand to 28 players for the month of April due to the shortened spring training.  Also, a limit of five has been placed on the number of times a player can be optioned to the minor leagues during a season.  After that, the player must be put on waivers in order to send him down additional times.  Players optioned prior to May 1st will not have that option count against the limit due to the expanded roster.  This new limit does not impact the number of option years a player has.

Players now have expanded rights to engage in promotional and endorsement activities with sports betting companies.  I’m sure nothing bad will come of that.  Also, the MLBPA has agreed to drop their grievance from 2020 about the owners bargaining in good faith about the pandemic-shortened season as part of the new CBA.  An older grievance, concerning how the Pirates, A’s, Marlins, and Rays spend their revenue-sharing dollars, is still ongoing.

Other rules changes that were part of the negotiations, like a pitch clock, shift restrictions, larger bases, and automated balls and strikes, will not be implemented until the 2023 season at the earliest.

Starting in 2023, a lottery will be implemented to determine who gets the first six picks of the draft.  The 18 teams who did not make the previous postseason will be eligible with the three teams with the worst records getting a 16.5% chance at the pick and the six teams with the best records getting a less than 1% chance.  Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts will not be eligible to receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don’t can’t get a top-six choice in consecutive drafts.  Any team that is ineligible for the lottery will not be allowed to select higher than 10th overall.  The draft itself will remain 20 rounds.  A decision on the International Draft, and the corresponding removal of draft pick compensation, will be decided by July 25th.

MLB and MLBPA agreed to stage international games or tours over the next five years.  Regular-season games will be held in Mexico City each May from 2023-26, in London in June 2023, 2024, and 2026 and in Paris in June 2025, and in San Juan, Puerto Rico, in September 2025 and 2026.  A season-opening series is planned for somewhere in Asia for 2024 and Tokyo for 2025.  Postseason tours are planned for South Korea and Taiwan this year and for Latin America in 2023.  Spring training games are being envisioned for Puerto Rico and/or the Dominican Republic in 2024, and the World Baseball Classic returns in 2023 and 2026.

Starting in 2023, teams will play at least one series against every opponent in each league.  Because of the expanded wild card, the new schedule will feature fewer divisional games, and every team will play at least one series against every other opponent, including alternating home and away series every other year against teams in the other league.

Finally, teams will be adding ad patches on their jerseys and stickers on their batting helmets starting in 2023.  Unconfirmed reports say that the jersey patches will go on the sleeve and may be on different sleeves depending on which would give it more exposure.  No word yet on how that would work with teams that already have one (or two) sleeve patches.  The jersey sponsorships are being sold at the team level and can’t go to alcohol, gambling, or media brands.  Helmet sponsorships are expected to be handled by MLB.

2021 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed shortened baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Marcus Semien

Well, one difference between my pre-season selection, Aaron Judge, and the three finalists is that Judge played in a post-season game.  I would assume Shohei Ohtani will walk away with this award.

Cy Young Award: Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn, Robbie Ray

My initial guess was that Lucas Giolito would take home the prize, but my guess is Robbie Ray, who won the ERA title and led the major leagues in strikeouts, will take home the award.

Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker, Kevin Cash, Scott Servais

As usual, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  I assume Mariners manager Scott Servais will win for keeping his team in contention until the final day of the season, despite his GM selling off his closer at the trade deadline.

Rookie of the Year: Randy Arozarena, Wander Franco, Luis Garcia

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  Assuming Arozarena and Franco don’t split the Tampa vote, I’m going to go with Franco.

National League

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2021 Predictions Revisited

What a difference six months makes.  Back in March, at the dawn of the 2021 baseball season, I made my annual predictions as to who would win what with little idea if the season would go off as planned.  Now that the regular season has come to an end, it is time revisit those predictions and see what, if anything, I got right.

American League

East: Yankees

Well, that’s one down.  Despite losing two starting pitchers from last year’s staff, the Rays managed to repeat as champs of the AL East.

Central: Twins

I was all set to go with the White Sox here, until a late injury to Eloy Jimenez in spring training left me feeling bad.  The Twins fell off the face of the Earth, while the White Sox overcame injuries all season to cruise to their first division title since 2008.

West: Astros

Hey, here’s one I got right.  The Astros return to the top of the division after a one year break.

Wild Cards: White Sox, Blue Jays

Talk about coming down to the wire.  With a potential 4-way tie for the two Wild Card spots heading in to the final day of the season, the Yankees and the Red Sox both took control of their destinies with victories on Sunday, leaving the Blue Jays and the Mariners on the outside looking in.

AL Champion: Yankees

The Rays do seem to be the class of the league.

Cy Young: Lucas Giolito

That seems very unlikely.  Blue Jays ace Robbie Ray seems like a popular choice.

MVP: Aaron Judge

A fine choice, but who could have seen Shohei Ohtani coming?  The two-way Angels star will run away and hide with this award.

National League

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Angels All Time Leaders – Through 2019

laangelsWith baseball shut down because of the corona virus, I thought it would be an interesting time to look at the all time leaders in both offensive and defensive categories for all 30 teams. We continue today with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

The Angels began life in 1961, joining the American League along with the second incarnation of the Washington Senators.  They’ve changed their location designation multiple times, starting in Los Angeles, changing to California in 1966, moving to Anaheim in 1997 and, awkwardly incorporating both Los Angeles and Anaheim starting in 2005, and finally returning to just Los Angeles in 2016.  I’ve seen them play 36 times, including games 1 and 2 of the 2005 ALCS against the White Sox and Jim Thome’s 500th career home run in 2008.

Home Runs

Name Total
Vladimir Guerrero 5
Chone Figgins 3
Garret Anderson 3
Juan Rivera 3

Hits

Name Total
Maicer Izturis 21
Howie Kendrick 18
Vladimir Guerrero 16

Runs

Name Total
Vladimir Guerrero 10
Maicer Izturis 8
Chone Figgins 8

RBI

Name Total
Garret Anderson 9
Howie Kendrick 9
Shohei Ohtani 9

Doubles

Name Total
Torii Hunter 5
Maicer Izturis 4
Casey Kotchman 4

Triples Continue reading →

2019 Final Batting Leaders

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersAnother baseball season has come to an end, with the Cubs shocking late season collapse leaving them out of the post-season and without a manager and year three of the rebuild for the White Sox finally showing some signs of life.  Let’s take a look back at the offensive leaders for the 37 games that I attended this season:

Home Runs

Name Total
Jose Abreu 7
Eloy Jimenez 5
Welington Castillo 4
Kyle Schwarber 4
Tim Anderson 4

Hits

Name Total
Jose Abreu 33
Tim Anderson 33
Yoan Moncada 31
Leury Garcia 26
Eloy Jimenez 23

Runs

Name Total
Tim Anderson 17
Yoan Moncada 14
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2018 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez, Mike Trout

Giancarlo Stanton was was my pre-season selection to win the award this year and, while he was productive, he didn’t pull away from the pack as he did last year for the Marlins.  Mookie Betts should run away and hide with this award.

Cy Young Award: Corey Kluber, Blake Snell, Justin Verlander

A late season injury kept my pre-season pick of Chris Sale from competing for his first Cy Young award.  My guess is that Blake Snell takes home the prize.

Manager of the Year: Alex Cora, Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin

Once again, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Alex Cora should be a shoo-in for the award, given the Red Sox performance in his rookie campaign as skipper.

Rookie of the Year: Miguel Andujar, Shohei Ohtani, Gleyber Torres

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  Despite losing time due to injury, Ohtani seems to be the odds-on favorite.

National League

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