2024 Predictions

The North American portion of the 2024 baseball season is scheduled to kick off on Thursday, with a full slate of games featuring all 30 teams.  For the fourteenth consecutive year, I’ve looked into the crystal ball to make my picks for the upcoming season.

American League

East: Rays

Central: Guardians

West: Mariners

Wild Cards: Astros, Blue Jays, Yankees

AL Champion: Yankees

Cy Young: Tristan McKenzie

MVP: Julio Rodriguez

National League

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Belli’s Back

A week into spring training, the Cubs made perhaps their biggest move of the offseason, bringing back Cody Bellinger on a three-year, $80 million contract.  Bellinger, who was looking for a long-term deal in the $200 million neighborhood, has the ability to opt-out of the deal after the first two seasons.

Bellinger, who won the 2019 NL MVP award for the Dodgers, had a strong season with the Cubs in 2023 after years of injuries and struggles knocked his career trajectory off track.  He notched his highest totals in home runs, RBIs, average, OPS+, and WAR since that 2019 season.  Hoping to turn that success into long-term security, he turned down his option for the 2024 season and became a free agent.  The deal he was looking for, however, was nowhere to be found, likely because he has to prove that last year’s performance was the start of a trend and not a one-time resurrection.

Three Of A Kind

On a cold winter’s day, the attention of the baseball world turns to upstate New York and the hamlet of Cooperstown, where the votes were tallied, and the 2024 Hall of Fame class is now complete.  Adrian Beltre, Todd Helton, and Joe Mauer join Jim Leyland, who was elected by the Veteran’s Committee last month, in obtaining baseball immortality.  Beltre, the former Dodger/Mariner/Ranger, and Mauer, the long-time Twin, make it on their first try.  Helton, the former Rockie first baseman, was on his sixth go-around.

Four others tallied greater than 50% of the vote, led by Billy Wagner, who came just short at 73.8% and seems likely to make it next year, his final year on the ballot.  Gary Sheffield saw a not-insignificant jump in his final election, rising to 63.9%.  Andruw Jones rose to 61.6% with three more years to go.  In his second go-around, Carlos Beltran jumped up to 57.1%.

On the local front, Manny Ramirez, who spent a little more than a month with the White Sox at the tail end of his career, saw a small decrease in support, finishing with 32.5% of the vote thanks to his multiple PED suspensions.  The disgraced Omar Vizquel, accused of both sexual abuse of an autistic teen and spousal abuse since being added to the ballot, dropped again, going down to 17.7%.  Jimmy Rollins, who spent the final 41 games of his career on the south side, picked up 14.8% in his third go-around.  Mark Buehrle fell back again, dropping to 8.3% in his fourth time on the ballot, living to fight another day.  Former White Sox pitchers Bartolo Colon and James Shields nabbed five votes between them.

Eight players will fall off the ballot after failing to score 5% of the vote.

As for the newest Hall of Famers, I’ve seen Mauer play 42 times, Beltre 17 times, and Helton eleven times.  They will get their day in the sun on Sunday, July 21.

Joe Mauer’s numbers in games I’ve attended were:

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2023 Predictions Revisited

Six months ago, I made my annual predictions as to who would win what.  With the Wild Card round in full swing, it is time to revisit those predictions and see what, if anything, I got right.

American League

East: Yankees

Yeah, I didn’t see this one coming.  The Yankees missed the postseason for the first time since 2016.  Meanwhile, the upstart Orioles came out of nowhere to win the East and take the top seed in the American League.

Central: Guardians

The Guardians put up a fight, but the Twins managed to rebound and re-take the Central.

West: Astros

It came down to the last day of the season, but the Astros did manage to win the division for the third straight year and the sixth year out of the last seven.

Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Mariners, White Sox

Oh boy.  Well, the Blue Jays managed to snag the last Wild Card spot and the Mariners lasted until the final week.  The White Sox, on the other hand, lost 100 games and were out of contention in April.

AL Champion: Yankees

If I’m going to be wrong, this is the way to do it.  The Astros look to have the easiest path, but I’m going to say either the Orioles or the Rays pull this one off.

Cy Young: Alek Manoah

This might be the wrongest prediction in the history of predictions.  Manoah was so bad this year, he spent time in both the Rookie League and AA.  Gerrit Cole looks to be the likely winner.

MVP: Julio Rodriguez

Another wrong guess.  Shohei Ohtani will probably take it, despite injuries ending his season early.

National League

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The Sell-Off Continues

The dismantling of the 2023 Chicago White Sox continued today, as pitchers Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly were traded to the Dodgers in exchange for Nick Nastrini, Jordan Leasure, and Trayce Thompson.  Lynn and Kelly last teamed up Wednesday night, as they combined to give up six runs in the top of the fifth in the loss to the Cubs.

The White Sox acquired the 36-year-old Lynn prior to the 2021 season, where he helped lead the team to an AL Central title, earned an All-Star nod and finished top three in AL Cy Young Award voting, and signed a three-year contract extension.  A knee injury limited him to 21 starts in 2022, and hampered his performance when he did pitch, as he saw his ERA soar by nearly one and a third runs.  This year has been a mixed bag, as some of his peripheral numbers show that he should be doing better than he has, but his ERA is well over 6 and he’s set a career high for home runs allowed, and we aren’t even to August yet.

Joe Kelly, signed as a free agent prior to the 2022 season, has not seen much success during his tenure on the south side.  Injuries hampered him in 2022 as he posted a career-worst 6.08 ERA.  He has seen better results in 2023, but still sports an ERA of 4.97 while spending more than his fair share of time on the IL.

On the return side, Nick Nastrini, a 23-year-old right-hander, appears to be the prize in the deal.  The Dodgers fourth-round pick in 2021, he reportedly has the stuff to be a starter in the big leagues if he can reign in his command.  He was 5-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 17 starts Double A.  Jordan Leasure was a 14th-round pick in 2021 and has been closing in Double A this year, compiling a 3.09 ERA with nine saves.  He’s averaging 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but has had issues keeping the balls that are hit in the ballpark, giving up more than one and a half homers per nine innings.  Trayce Thompson, who made his major league debut with the White Sox back in 2015, is currently on the 60-Day IL and was likely included just to give the Dodgers salary relief.

The White Sox are now down two pitchers from their starting rotation for the remainder of 2023, with indications a third, Mike Clevinger, may be moved as well if he proves healthy enough coming off the IL this weekend.  Who eats those innings for the rest of 2023?  Your guess is as good as mine.

Looking Ahead To 2024

Using the extra off day in the All-Star break, Major League Baseball released their tentative 2024 schedule on Thursday.  For the second year in a row, MLB is keeping with a balanced schedule, playing 52 games against division opponents, 64 games against non-division opponents in the same league, and 46 interleague games, with series against every team in the opposite league.  With the White Sox entering an uncertain second half of 2023 following a disappointing year and a half during what should have been the prime of their contention window, and the Cubs looking to take the next step forward in their rebuild, the 2024 season looks to be an interesting time in the city of Chicago.  So, for one day, at least, let’s turn our attention to next summer for both teams.

The White Sox open their season on March 28 against the Tigers, kicking off a six-game homestand that also features the Braves.

Aside from the Braves, the new interleague schedule sees the Pirates, Reds, Dodgers, Braves, Mets, Rockies, and Nationals travelling to Chicago, while the White Sox will go on the road to face the Phillies, Marlins, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks, and Padres. The rivalry with their north side foes continues with a two-game series at Wrigley Field in early June followed by a mid-August tilt at Guaranteed Rate Field that leaves both teams the rare Sunday off-day.

After a west coast trip in mid-September, the season wraps up with a mid-week home battle against the Angels followed by a trip to Detroit to finish up the year.

On the north side, the Cubs also open their season on March 28, heading out on the road for the first time in five years to battle the Rangers.  After a three-game series, they open the home portion of the schedule against the Rockies.

Aside from the Rangers, the Cubs will head out on the road to face the Mariners, Orioles, Guardians, Red Sox, and Royals, while the A’s, Twins, Angels, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Tigers will be coming to Wrigley.

Only six of their 26 games in September are against their NL Central rivals, which could make a difference if the Cubs find themselves in contention.  They end the year with a three-game tilt at home against the Reds.

It Hasn’t Been A While

Coming in to the 2023 season, I had seen every team since the pandemic-stricken 2020 season save two: the Pirates, who I had last seen in 2019, and the Marlins, who I hadn’t seen in person since 2013.  This week, I knocked both of those teams off the list, with the Marlins coming through Guaranteed Rate Field this past weekend and the Pirates in town at Wrigley Field this week.

Less than halfway through the 2023 season, I’ve already seen fourteen of the 30 clubs, just under half.  That number jumps to 25 when we turn the clock back to 2022.  That’s 83% of the league that I’ve seen in less than a season and a half.  The remaining five I saw in 2021, and I’m sure at least two or three will make an appearance in the second half of 2023.  Anyway, here’s a look at each team and the last time I saw them play.

Most Recent Game By Team

Team Name Date
Washington Nationals 5/19/2021
St. Louis Cardinals 5/26/2021
San Diego Padres 6/1/2021
Boston Red Sox 9/11/2021
Cincinnati Reds 9/28/2021
Seattle Mariners 4/12/2022
Los Angeles Angels 4/30/2022
New York Yankees 5/15/2022
Los Angeles Dodgers 6/8/2022
Texas Rangers 6/12/2022
Atlanta Braves 6/18/2022
Toronto Blue Jays 6/20/2022
Colorado Rockies 7/27/2022
Oakland Athletics 7/30/2022
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All Time Team Records

After a long winter, the 2023 baseball season gets underway today.  To celebrate, it is time once again to look at the all-time team records for games that I have identified as having attended dating back to 1984.  Last year, I tied 2012 for my 16th highest game total of all time, a big drop-off from the year before, and managed to see 20 out of the 30 teams, so there should be some nice changes.

The White Sox look to bounce back after a disappointing 2022, with a new manager hoping to regain the AL Central crown and move past the ALDS in the post-season, while the Cubs are finally hoping to be back in the conversation when it comes to the NL playoff picture.  The 2023 season should be an interesting one on both sides of town.

All-Time Team Records

Team Name Won Loss Winning Pctg
California Angels 2 0 1.000
Arizona Diamondbacks 15 2 0.882
Cleveland Guardians 2 1 0.667
Florida Marlins 15 8 0.652
New York Yankees 19 12 0.613
Colorado Rockies 11 7 0.611
Boston Red Sox 19 13 0.594
Los Angeles Angels 20 15 0.571
Toronto Blue Jays 15 12 0.556
Philadelphia Phillies 11 9 0.550
Washington Nationals 7 6 0.538
Cleveland Indians 31 27 0.534
Chicago White Sox 351 321 0.522
Chicago Cubs 226 211 0.517
Houston Astros Continue reading →

2023 Predictions

After three straight seasons of strange occurrences, the 2023 baseball season looks to kick off tomorrow without any COVID or lockout effects in sight.  For the thirteenth consecutive year, I’ve looked into the crystal ball to make my picks for the upcoming season.

American League

East: Yankees

Central: Guardians

West: Astros

Wild Cards: Blue Jays, Mariners, White Sox

AL Champion: Yankees

Cy Young: Alek Manoah

MVP: Julio Rodriguez

National League

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Team Stats: Games Per Team

Today, we wrap up our look at the all-time rankings for all iterations of the current 30 teams for the 1040 games I’ve identified that I have attended.  Opening Day is just under two months away and spring training camps are getting ready to roll in just a week or two, so let’s finish things off with the total number of games per team.

With the newly unbalanced schedule starting this year, the Central Division in each league will not score as heavily going forward.  In fact, you have to drop down to seventh place in the current rankings to find a team not in the Central Division and to tenth place to find the first team that was never in the Central.  The addition of expanded interleague play should also shake things up a bit moving forward.

Games Per Team

Team Name Total Games
Chicago White Sox 672
Chicago Cubs 437
Minnesota Twins 68
Kansas City Royals 62
Detroit Tigers 59
Cleveland Indians 58
Houston Astros 49
Pittsburgh Pirates 46
Milwaukee Brewers 41
Seattle Mariners 40
Cincinnati Reds 40
Texas Rangers 39
Baltimore Orioles 36
Los Angeles Angels 35
St. Louis Cardinals Continue reading →