Eric Zorn and the good commenters at his blog are taking a stab at predicting 10 outcomes in today’s elections, both local and national. I thought I would throw my hat in the ring and give out my predictions for those 10 races.
U.S. President: Mitt Romney (R) or Barack Obama (D)
I think President Obama will win a second term, and it will be a bigger victory than people are expecting.
10th Congressional district: Brad Schneider (D) or Bob Dold (R)
To be honest, I don’t know much about either of these candidates, but I have seen multiple attack ads for each one in the days leading up to the election. I’m going to guess that Dold takes the race.
8th Congressional district: Joe Walsh (R) or Tammy Duckworth (D)
Tammy Duckworth is a war hero who sacrificed her legs for her country. Joe Walsh, by all accounts, is a miserable human being. So why does this race seem to be so tight. I’m hoping human decency comes through and will predict that Duckworth wins.
11th Illinois U.S. Congressional district: Bill Foster (D) or Judy Biggert (R)
This is one of those races where you kind of hope neither candidate would win. My guess is that Biggert takes it.
Indiana U.S. Senate: Richard Mourdock (R) or Joe Donnelly (D)
You may recognize Mourdock from his recent reprehensible comments about pregnancies that result from rape being “God’s will”. You would think that would be enough to tip this race in Joe Donnelly’s favor. Having spent some time in Indiana, though, makes me worried that they will buy into this anti-woman nonsense hook, line, and sinker. So, although it pains me to do so, I’m predicting a victory for Richard Mourdock.
Missouri U.S. Senate: Claire McCaskill (D) or Todd Akin (R)
Todd Akin had his moment in the sun earlier this summer when he informed the world about the special skill the women of the world had acquired that enables them to shut down their reproductive systems in cases of rape. I have a little more faith in our neighbors to the west and am predicting that Claire McCaskill wins this race.
Of the state-wide ballot measures relating to gay marriage in four states, how many will turn out favorably for advocates of equality?
Sadly, my initial thought was zero. Gay marriage has yet to pass anywhere when left up to a vote. However, I would like to think that the tide is beginning to turn and that we are becoming more accepting as a nation. I’m guessing 1 of those states passes.
Democrats currently hold 53 out of 100 seats in the U.S. Senate. How many will they hold in the next Congress, counting independents who intend to caucus with them?
I’m guessing 51.
Will the Democrats pick up five or more seats in the U.S. House?
No.
Tie-breaker: Guess the electoral vote margin for the candidate you selected in choice No. 1:
68