2022 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani

Had Shohei Ohtani not had the season he had last year, he would easily walk away with this award.  But, as they say, familiarity builds, if not contempt, at least complacency. So Aaron Judge, who broke the American League home run record, will take home the prize.

Cy Young Award: Dylan Cease, Alek Manoah, Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander returned from Tommy John surgery at age 39 and won 18 games while posting a 1.75 ERA.  Seems a little suspicious to my eyes, but he will easily take home this award.

Manager of the Year: Terry Francona, Brandon Hyde, Scott Servais

As usual, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Scott Servais should have won this award last year, but I don’t think he will make up for it this year.  Brandon Hyde led the Orioles to a 31-game improvement over the previous year and their first winning season since 2016.  That should get him the award.

Rookie of the Year: Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  While all three had very successful seasons, my guess would be that Julio Rodriguez brings this award back to Seattle.

National League

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2020 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed shortened baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Jose Abreu, D.J. LeMahieu, Jose Ramirez

Well, my pre-season selection to win the award this year, Yoan Moncada, got taken down by the corona virus, but I’m expecting (and hoping) that it stays in the same clubhouse and that Jose Abreu wins.

Cy Young Award: Shane Bieber, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu

My initial guess was that Blake Snell would take home the prize, but this has Shane Bieber written all over it.

Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash, Charlie Montoyo, Rick Renteria

Once again, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Kevin Cash is the likely winner, though wouldn’t it be funny to see Renteria bring home this award a month after losing the job he was being recognized for?.

Rookie of the Year: Christian Javier, Kyle Lewis, Luis Robert

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  Had you held the election at the end of August, Robert would have been the odds-on favorite.  However, a month long slump in September probably puts Kyle Lewis in the driver’s seat.

National League

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Orioles All Time Leaders – Through 2019

oriolesWith baseball shut down because of the corona virus, I thought it would be an interesting time to look at the all time leaders in both offensive and defensive categories for all 30 teams. We continue today with the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles began life in 1901 as the Milwaukee Brewers, one of the charter members of the American League.  They moved to St. Louis the following year, becoming the Browns, before finally arriving in Baltimore in 1954.  I’ve seen them play 32 times in 6 different stadiums, first in 1985 at the original Comiskey Park and most recently last June at Camden Yards in Baltimore.

Home Runs

Name Total
Manny Machado 4
Brian Roberts 3
4 tied with 2

Hits

Name Total
Brian Roberts 31
Nick Markakis 17
Melvin Mora 14
Adam Jones 14

Runs

Name Total
Brian Roberts 17
Nick Markakis 8
Melvin Mora 8
Luke Scott 8
Adam Jones 8

RBI

Name Total
Brian Roberts 12
Manny Machado 9
Nick Markakis 8
Luke Scott 8

Doubles

Name Total
Brian Roberts 6
Adam Jones 5
Melvin Mora 4

Triples Continue reading →

Over, Yonder


Yesterday, the White Sox designated Yonder Alonso for assignment, ending a painful half season for the veteran slugger on the South Side.  In 251 plate appearances, the 32-year-old slugger has struggled to a career-worst .178/.275/.301 slash line, with 7 homers and 27 RBIs in 67 games.  Acquired in December in part to attract his brother-in-law Manny Machado to sign with the White Sox as a free agent, Alonso was also expected to add some left handed pop and potentially be a bridge to the future if Jose Abreu, a free agent after this season, moves on.  Unfortunately, none of those things worked out.

Alonso’s numbers in a White Sox uniform, both for games I attended and overall, were:

2019 Batting
BA AtBats Runs Hits RBIs Walks StrikeOuts Doubles Triples HomeRuns StolenBases GIDPs Errors Games
0.094 32 1 3 3 3 6 0 0 0 0 2 0 11
0.178 219 23 39 27 29 53 6 0 7 0 8 2 67

 

Manny Machado

The first domino of the frozen free agent class of 2018 has fallen, and the White Sox, one of the reported finalists, are left on the outside looking in.  Manny Machado, the 26 year old superstar who, along with fellow free agent Bryce Harper, was the cream of this class, decided to hitch his wagon to the Padres, signing a 10 year, $300 million contract, with an opt out after the fifth year.  Reports say that the White Sox final offer was $250 million over eight years, with incentives and options that could have driven the value to $350 million.

Senior Vice President Kenny Williams, trying to defend the fiasco, said that the contract total of $300 million “wasn’t feasible to us because we still have to project putting together a total winning roster and keeping the young players that will ultimately earn into greater dollars themselves.”  Which is, of course, ridiculous.  The team projects to have an $80 million payroll this year, low enough to be the 25th-highest total in the majors.  The contract could have easily been front-loaded to pay Machado now, while they have no other major expenditures, while offering relief in the later years when today’s prospects may looking for their own payday.

With Machado off the board, and the White Sox not reportedly still in contention for Harper, 2019 may be another tough year, despite the additions of Machado pals Yonder Alonso and John Jay and the expected arrival of Eloy Jimenez sometime in April.

The Waiting Game

Spring training camps are opening up all across Arizona and Florida and the two biggest free agents are still unsigned.  Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, both aged 26, were looking to snare 10 year deals worth in excess of $300 million, but are on the outside looking in as their peers get back to work.  With 2 straight winters of a free agent freeze out, many people are questioning what is going on.  Especially when 2 superstars, each about to enter their prime, are unable to find the deals that they are looking for.

There are many reasons for the lack of movement.  First, many of the teams that you would expect to be outbidding each other are treating the luxury tax thresholds as though it were a salary cap.  This has left the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers on the sidelines.  Secondly, the number of teams that aren’t planning on being competitive further limits the list of available suitors.

Of course the remaining reason, depending on your point of view, may be the most troubling.  Either teams are colluding to keep the price of free agents down, as they did in the 80s before to a cost of $280 million in a 1990 settlement, or analytics has gotten to the point where each team values players the same, leaving little variation in offers.  Either way, the last 2 off-seasons are likely to lead to labor unrest, which the sport has largely been able to avoid since the 1994 strike.  And the longer Machado and Harper are out of camp, the worse it will be.

Retooling For 2019

The White Sox made a trio of acquisitions over the past week, bolstering their roster for 2019.  Things started on Tuesday, when a trade with the Pirates netted the Sox right hander Ivan Nova in exchange for minor leaguer Yordi Rosario and international bonus money.  Yesterday, it was reported that the White Sox came to an agreement with free agent catcher James McCann.  Finally, the White Sox announced earlier this morning that they had acquired first baseman Yonder Alonso from the Indians for minor league outfielder Alex Call.

Nova, signed through 2019, basically steps in to the James Shields role as innings eater and mentor, though he should offer better results on the mound.  Over the past 3 years, Nova surpasses Shields in games, innings pitched, HR allowed, ERA, and FIP.  While he has given up more hits, that should be more than offset by a drastic reduction in walks.  Rosario is a lottery ticket at this point and, due to the Luis Robert signing, the White Sox couldn’t use the bonus money anyway, so the cost to get Nova was minimal.

With Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith off to other organizations and Seby Zavala and Zack Collins still a year or so away, the White Sox needed a catcher to team with Welington Castillo for 2019.  McCann will fill that role, though he rates as sub-par both offensively and defensively.  His main pluses are the occasional home run and a strong arm to control the running game.

The trade for Alonso, at first glance, is a bit of a head scratcher.  Assuming there is nothing in the works on the Jose Abreu front, the two will split time between first base and designated hitter.  Another reported use is recruiting, as Alonso’s brother-in-law just happens to be Manny Machado, one of the two biggest fish in the free agency pond.  Who knows if it will help, but the White Sox reportedly have a meeting set with Machado for next week.  If that doesn’t pay off, then the move basically helps a division rival clear salary space in exchange for someone who isn’t likely to be a long term part of the rebuilding process.

Single Game Batting Leaders Revisited Revisited

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersIt’s been 3 years (to the day) and 121 games since we last looked at the single game leaders in offensive categories for all the games I have attended in person.  There are some new names of the list that weren’t there when we first looked in 2012 and again in 2015.

Home Runs

Name Total Date
Sammy Sosa 3 6/5/1996
Moises Alou 3 7/4/2003
Manny Machado 3 8/7/2016
Enrique Hernandez 3 10/19/2017
119 with 2 Most recently on 6/16/2018

Hits

Name Total Date
Scott Rolen 5 4/22/2007
Mike Fontenot 5 6/25/2007
Mark DeRosa 5 9/17/2007
Alfonso Soriano 5 5/17/2008
Derrek Lee 5 6/28/2008
Ryan Braun 5 8/2/2010
Prince Fielder 5 8/2/2010
Danny Santana 5 8/3/2014
Melky Cabrera 5 6/21/2015

Runs

Name Total Date
Chris Burke 5 6/13/2006
Gary Ward 4 8/14/1984
Paul Konerko 4 6/28/2002
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2016 Final Batting Leaders

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersAnother baseball season has come to an end, with a 108 year World Series championship drought broken on the North Side of town and yet more disappointment on the South Side.  Let’s take a look back at the offensive leaders for the 39 games, including the post-season, that I attended this season:

Home Runs

Name Total
Jose Abreu 8
Todd Frazier 5
Adam Eaton 5
Tim Anderson 3
Avisail Garcia 3
Manny Machado 3

Hits

Name Total
Jose Abreu 37
Melky Cabrera 35
Adam Eaton 30
Tim Anderson 26
Todd Frazier 23

Runs

Name Total
Jose Abreu 17
Adam Eaton 17
Continue reading →

2015 Final Batting Leaders

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersAnother season has come to an end, with yet more disappointment on the south side while things finally started to look up on the north side.  Let’s take a look back at the offensive leaders for the 39 games, including the post-season, that I attended this season:

Home Runs

Name Total
Alexei Ramirez 6
Brian Dozier 3
Melky Cabrera 3
Geovany Soto 3
Gordon Beckham 3
Jose Abreu 3
Jorge Soler 3

Hits

Name Total
Melky Cabrera 39
Alexei Ramirez 38
Adam Eaton 34
Jose Abreu 27
Avisail Garcia 26

Runs

Name Total
Alexei Ramirez 15
Adam Eaton 15
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