2025 BBWAA Award Predictions

The Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the recently completed baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Jose Ramirez

Judge has won this award two of the last three seasons and his performance in 2025, when healthy, would ordinarily merit a third, but I have to believe Cal Raleigh, who became just the seventh player to reach the 60-home run mark and the first to do so while catching over 1000 innings, will bring home the award.

Cy Young Award: Hunter Brown, Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal

With all due respect to Brown, this is a two-way race.  Skubal seemed the obvious choice through much of the season, and I am guessing he will win, but Crochet probably made it much closer down the stretch.

Manager of the Year: John Schneider, Stephen Vogt, Dan Wilson

As usual, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Schneider would be the obvious choice if voting were done today, after leading the Blue Jays within inches of a title.  Dan Wilson should also get some support for finally pushing the Mariners past the Astros.  But, if I had to guess, I would say Stephen Vogt will win, after the Guardians came out of nowhere to pass the Tigers for the AL Central crown after losing Emmanuel Clase to a gambling scandal mid-year.

Rookie of the Year: Roman Anthony, Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  Kurtz should run away and hide with this award after knocking 36 home runs with an OPS+ of 173.

National League

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2025 Final Pitching Leaders

On Tuesday. we looked at the leaders in the 39 games I attended this year on the offensive side of the ball.  With the League Championship Series in full swing, it’s time to finish up our look back at the 2025 season with the pitching leaders, starting with everyone’s favorite pitching statistic:

Wins

Name Total
Davis Martin 5
Adrian Houser 3
Mike Vasil 2
Cam Booser 2
Sean Burke 2
Daniel Palencia 2
Matthew Boyd 2
Tanner Bibee 2

Losses

Name Total
Jordan Leasure 3
Sean Burke 2
Aaron Civale 2
Yoendrys Gómez 2
30 tied with 1

ERA (> 6 IP)

Name Total
Cade Horton 0.00
Bryce Elder 0.00
Brad Keller 0.00
Garrett Crochet 1.23
Daniel Palencia 1.35

Strikeouts

Name Total
Davis Martin 37
Sean Burke 34
Mike Vasil 24
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2025 All Star Break Pitching Leaders

Now that the All-Star Game is behind us and we await tomorrow’s start of the second half of the season, let’s take a look at the first half leaders on the defensive side of the ball for the 23 games I’ve attended so far this season, beginning with everyone’s favorite pitching stat:

Wins

Name Total
Mike Vasil 2
Sean Burke 2
Adrian Houser 2
Matthew Boyd 2
15 tied with 1

Losses

Name Total
Sean Burke 2
Jordan Leasure 2
18 tied with 1

ERA (> 6 IP)

Name Total
Adrian Houser 0.00
Garrett Crochet  1.23
Jameson Tallion 1.42
Shane Smith 1.50
Matthew Boyd 2.25

Strikeouts

Name Total
Saen Burke 26
Continue reading →

2025 Predictions

With the Cubs and Dodgers having already gotten their seasons off to an early start in Tokyo, the North American portion of the 2025 baseball season is scheduled to kick off on Thursday, with a full slate of games featuring all 30 teams.  For the fifteenth consecutive year, I’ve looked into the crystal ball to make my picks for the upcoming season.

American League

East: Red Sox

Central: Guardians

West: Mariners

Wild Cards: Rays, Twins, Orioles

AL Champion: Guardians

Cy Young: Garrett Crochet

MVP: Julio Rodriguez

National League

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Here We Go Again

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.  In order to jumpstart their latest rebuilding effort, the White Sox have traded their stud left-handed starter to the Red Sox for four prospects.  Hopefully the end result will be different from the Chris Sale deal back in 2016.  This time around, Garrett Crochet is heading east, while the White Sox will receive catcher Kyle Teel, outfielder Braden Montgomery, infielder Chase Meidroth, and right-hander Wikelman Gonzalez.

Crochet was the 11th overall selection by the White Sox in the 2020 draft.  Thanks to the pandemic, he didn’t spend any time in the minor leagues before making his major league debut on September 18, throwing a scoreless inning with two strikeouts against the Reds.  Crochet worked out of the bullpen for the remainder of the year, giving up just three hits without allowing a run to score in five appearances as the White Sox made the post-season for the first time since 2008.  He made a single appearance in the Wild Card round against the A’s, striking out the two batters he faced.

Crochet returned to the bullpen in 2021, going 3-5 with a 2.82 ERA.  He appeared in three of the four games in the ALDS against the Astros, giving up five hits in just two and a third innings without surrendering a run.  An elbow injury and Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 season, and he returned to the big leagues in 2023, making thirteen appearances with a 3.55 ERA.

Last year, following the Dylan Cease trade, Crochet moved to the starting rotation full time and was named the opening day starter.  Coming off the injury and having totaled 73 total career innings, he was restricted to save his arm.  After notching his first All-Star, he struggled a little in the second half, finishing the season with 32 starts and a 6-2 record, posting a 3.58 ERA.

Teel, ranked as the #25 prospect in all of baseball, is the centerpiece of the deal.  A 22-year-old left-handed hitter, he was the first round draft choice of the Red Sox in 2023.  He split 2024 between Double A and Triple A and is expected to be ready to reach the major leagues next year.  Montgomery, a 21-year-old switch hitter, is ranked as the #54 prospect and was the top pick for the Red Sox in this summer’s draft.  Meidroth, a 23-year-old right hander, spent last season in Triple A, showing good plate discipline with little pop.  Gonzalez, 22, posted a 4.73 ERA in Double A last season, working mostly as a starter.

Will this deal work out better for the White Sox than the Sale trade did eight years ago?  Only time will tell, as the south siders look to bounce back from the worst season in baseball history.

Crochet’s numbers in a White Sox uniform, both for games I attended and overall, were: Continue reading →

2024 Final Pitching Leaders

Last week, we looked at the leaders in the 27 games I attended this year on the offensive side of the ball.  With the Division Series in full swing, it’s time to finish up our look back at the wasted 2024 season with the pitching leaders, starting with everyone’s favorite pitching statistic:

Wins

Name Total
Erick Fedde 2
25 tied with  1

Losses

Name Total
Garrett Crochet 4
Michael Kopech 2
Michael Soroka 2
Steven Wilson 2
Jake Woodford 2

ERA (> 6 IP)

Name Total
Erick Fedde 2.45
Tanner Houck 2.57
Chris Flexen 2.65
Justin Anderson 2.92
Jared Shuster 3.68

Strikeouts

Name Total
Garrett Crochet 43
Erick Fedde 31
Michael Soroka 16
Continue reading →

It’s Over

With 2005 World Series champion Mark Buehrle in attendance, the White Sox snapped their franchise-record losing streak last night at fourteen games, defeating the Red Sox 7-2.  Of course, they couldn’t do it easily and ran into some interesting moments along the way.

Garrett Crochet had little problems with the Red Sox, save for the third inning.  Two botched throws to first, one on a comebacker and the second on an appeal, gave the Red Sox the lead.

With the White Sox at bat in the bottom of the fourth, play was paused after a number of mini liquor bottles were thrown onto field.  The Sox were able to handle their liquor issues and plate three runs to take a two-run lead.

Finally, with two outs in the top of the ninth inning, the streak looked as it was about to fall.  A lazy flyball to left field seemed poised to end the game.  Unfortunately for everyone, rookie Duke Ellis, called up earlier in the week for his first taste of major league experience, booted it, extending the festivities.  The next batter, though, grounded out and the losing streak had finally, mercifully, come to an end.

What Went Wrong

After winning a Wild Card slot in 2020 and running away with the Central Division title in 2021, the White Sox looked like an easy lock to make a third straight post-season appearance this October.  Unfortunately, something (or somethings) went wrong along the way and after a long season where nothing ever seemed to click, the team was officially eliminated on Sunday after dropping six straight against the Guardians and the Tigers.  So where did things fall apart?  Let’s take a deeper look.

Injuries

After injuries rocked the White Sox in 2021, they revamped their strength and conditioning staff, hoping a new program would help stem the tide.  Unfortunately, the lockout prevented the new staff from working with the players, leaving them to their own devices.  GM Rick Hahn said in June that, between the lockout and the shortened spring training, the new program “got stymied a little bit this offseason” and that it would “be difficult in-season to perhaps change the results over the next few weeks and months in terms of health.”  Boy, was he not kidding.

Things started at the end of spring training, when lefty reliever Garrett Crochet went down for the year with an elbow injury requiring Tommy John surgery.  Two days later, starter Lance Lynn left his final spring tune-up with a bum knee, putting him on the shelf until the middle of June.  Finally, before the White Sox arrived in Detroit for their season opener, Yoan Moncada suffered an oblique strain that knocked him out for a month and may have sunk his entire season.  Relief pitcher Joe Kelly, signed during the offseason, also started the season on the IL rehabbing an injury from the year before and wasn’t activated until May.

Outfielder AJ Pollock left the second game of the year with a hamstring injury, missing over three weeks.  The same day, Lucas Giolito was placed on the IL with an abdominal strain, keeping him out for nearly two weeks.  The day he was activated, Eloy Jimenez was placed on the IL with a strained hamstring suffered that day against the Twins.  It would be two and a half months before he returned.  This was all before the calendar turned to May!

Things never let up.  Andrew Vaughn missed time in May after getting hit in the hand by a pitch.  Aaron Bummer suffered a right knee strain that kept him out for two weeks.  Lucas Giolito and Luis Robert both missed time in May thanks to bouts with COVID.  Joe Kelly went back on the IL with a hamstring strain.  Tim Anderson missed three weeks with a groin strain, the same injury that kept Vince Velasquez for two weeks.

Aaron Bummer suffered another injury in mid-June which kept him out until September.  Yasmani Grandal was felled with lower back spasms for six weeks.  A right forearm strain put Liam Hendriks on the shelf for nearly three weeks.  A strained hamstring took down Yoan Moncada for nearly three weeks.  Adam Engel fell victim to the same injury for two weeks.  On July 6th, Jake Burger went down with a bruised hand following a hit by pitch, Vince Velasquez was felled by a blister on his right index finger, and Danny Mendick was lost for the year with a torn ACL.  We just now are getting to the All-Star break.  Shall I keep going?

Luis Robert was shut down with blurred vision.  A lower back strain put Reynaldo Lopez on the shelf.  A torn finger ligament knocked out Tim Anderson for the remainder of the year on August 9th.  Another lower back strain took down Leury Garcia.  A bum knee sent Michael Kopech to the IL, while another hamstring strain stopped Yoan Moncada for the third time this year.  Kopech was felled again with a shoulder strain on September 7th.  Finally, after suffering with a wrist injury for nearly a month and a half, Luis Robert was shut down and placed on the IL on Saturday with the 2022 title all but wrapped up for the Guardians.

Aside from the sheer number of injuries, this meant that the White Sox were very rarely at anything approaching full strength.  Some piece of the puzzle was always missing, and usually two or three pieces.  The bullpen injuries led to some early overwork for guys like Kendall Graveman, which impacted his performance in the second half.  Because of this, the White Sox never seemed to gel or to be able to string wins together to pull ahead.

Lack of Power

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2021 Final Pitching Leaders

Yesterday, we looked at the leaders in the 58 games I attended this year on the offensive side of the ball.  With both League Championship Series in full swing today, it’s time to wrap up our look back at the 2021 season with the pitching leaders, starting with everyone’s favorite pitching statistic:

Wins

Name Total
Lance Lynn 4
Michael Kopech 3
Dylan Cease 3
Dallas Keuchel 3
Reynaldo Lopez 3
Lucas Giolito 3

Losses

Name Total
Carlos Rodon 4
Lance Lynn 3
Lucas Giolito 3
Dylan Cease 2
Reynaldo Lopez 2
Liam Hendriks 2
Jorge Alcala 2
Adbert Alzolay 2

ERA (> 6 IP)

Name Total
Ryan Burr 1.08
Matt Foster 1.23
Alec Mills 1.35
Lance McCullers 1.63
Mike Minor 1.63

Strikeouts

Name Total
Lance Lynn 76
Dylan Cease 75
Carlos Rodon 56
Continue reading →

2021 All Star Break Pitching Leaders

The second half gets kicked off tonight, with the White Sox holding an 8 game lead in the AL Central and the Cubs looking to be sellers after losing 13 of their final 15 games heading in to the break, dropping them from first place to third, with an 8 game deficit.  Let’s wrap up the first half with a look at the leaders on the defensive side of the ball for the 32 games I attended, starting with everyone’s favorite stat:

Wins

Name Total
Lance Lynn 4
Codi Heuer 2
Michael Kopech 2
Lucas Giolito 2
Dallas Keuchel 2

Losses

Name Total
Lucas Giolito 3
Carlos Rodon 3
Lance Lynn 2
Jorge Alcalá 2
22 tied with 1

ERA (> 6 IP)

Name Total
Michael Kopech 1.53
Dylan Cease 1.61
Mike Minor 1.64
Lance Lynn 1.70
Liam Henriks 2.03

Strikeouts

Name Total
Lance Lynn 51
Continue reading →