2016 BBWAA Award Predictions

2016wsballThe Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed baseball season, which will be announced next week.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Jose Altuve, Mookie Betts, Mike Trout

Mike Trout was my pre-season selection to win the award this year and, sadly, I think the failure of the Angels to compete has left his accomplishments unappreciated.  My guess is Mookie Betts gets rewarded for the division-winning Red Sox.

Cy Young Award: Corey Kluber, Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander

If the voting had taken place after the post-season, then Corey Kluber would likely get more love for leading the Indians within a game of winning the World Series.  So, I’m going to assume Rick Porcello, with his gaudy win total, will take home the award.

Manager of the Year: Jeff Banister, Terry Francona, Buck Showalter

Once again, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  I’m guessing Terry Francona will win the award for the second time.

Rookie of the Year: Michael Fulmer, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Naquin

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  I imagine that Michael Fulmer will be taking home the award.

National League

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2016 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Newcomers

baseballhof

The BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2016 last Monday.  The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 6th, with induction taking place next July. After Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz were elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 17 holdovers along with 15 newcomers, which may start to cause a bit of a problem.  The current BBWAA rules continue to limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10, and there may be more than 10 deserving candidates, so there will be too many qualified candidates fighting for limited spots in a shorter amount of time.  Once again, the BBWAA and the Hall may find themselves with a mess on their hands.

Last Thursday, we looked at the returning candidates.  Today, it’s time to look at the newcomers and who will be thankful come January.

Garret Anderson

The long-time Angel had a proud career, but has no chance to stay on the ballot for another year, let alone earn election at some point.

Brad Ausmus

It should be a quick one and out for the current Tigers manager.

Luis Castillo

Again, a perfectly acceptable career, but will be lucky to get a sympathy vote from a hometown writer.

David Eckstein

Wow, this batch of newcomers is starting to look a little weak.

Jim Edmonds

The defensive whiz will likely get some support, but not enough to get elected in this, or any other, year.

Troy Glaus

Another long time Angel who has no chance of being elected.

griffeyKen Griffey Jr.

The former Mariner, Red, and White Sox outfielder is likely to be the only newcomer elected in his first year of eligibility.  630 career home runs, without a hint of PED suspicion, will let him easily surpass the 75% threshold.

Mark Grudzielanek

Yeah, that’s not going to happen.

Mike Hampton

The one-time poster child for bad long term contracts is unlikely to get much support in what should be his one HOF election.

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2015 BBWAA Award Predictions

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersThe Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed baseball season.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Lorenzo Cain, Josh Donaldson, Mike Trout

Mike Trout, who won last year’s award, was my pre-season selection to win again this year. While I think Josh Donaldson will get plenty of support, I’m going to stick with Trout to win.

Cy Young Award: Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, David Price

Well, the one year I didn’t pick David Price as my pre-season pick, he makes his way into the top 3.  That said, I’m thinking Dallas Keuchel, of the upstart Astros, will take home the award.

Manager of the Year: Jeff Banister, A.J. Hinch, Paul Molitor

Once again, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  The three nominees all lead surprising teams into contention for most of the year.  My guess is A.J. Hinch wins the award for leading the Astros to the post-season for the first time since 2005.

Rookie of the Year: Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Miguel Sano

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  This one should be a no-brainer, with Carlos Correa taking home the award.

National League

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2016 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Holdovers

baseballhof

The BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2016 on Monday.  The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 6th, with induction taking place next July.  After Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and John Smoltz were elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 17 holdovers along with 15 newcomers, which may start to cause a bit of a problem.  The current BBWAA rules continue to limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10, and there may be more than 10 deserving candidates, so there will be too many qualified candidates fighting for limited spots in a shorter amount of time.  Once again, the BBWAA and the Hall may find themselves with a mess on their hands.

Let’s take a look at the returning candidates today before moving on to the newcomers.

Jeff Bagwell
Years on ballot: 5
2015 Percentage: 55.7

Bagwell bounced back last year with a small increase, but things continue to look bleak for him thanks to seemingly unsubstantiated PED rumors.  I fear he’ll continue to wait for that elusive call.

Barry Bonds
Years on ballot: 3
2015 Percentage: 36.8

The all time home run champion saw his vote percentage rise for the first time last year, but not significantly.  I doubt he’ll see much more support this year, leaving him on the outside looking in.

Roger Clemens
Years on ballot: 3
2015 Percentage: 37.5

Roger Clemens, he of the 354 career victories and 7 Cy Young awards, also found himself with a slight rise after his third run through the voting process.  For some odd reason, perhaps by having played for more teams, Clemens continues to get marginally more support than his fellow PED poster child Barry Bonds.

Nomar Garciaparra
Years on ballot: 1
2015 Percentage: 5.5

Considered at one time on an even keel with Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, Garciaparra is likely to drop off the ballot after this election.

Jeff Kent
Years on ballot: 2
2015 Percentage: 14.0

The 2000 NL MVP saw his support wane in his second year of eligibility.  With the number of candidates coming down the pike, the future does not look good for him.

Edgar Martinez
Years on ballot: 6
2015 Percentage: 27.0

The longtime DH for the Mariners has had plenty of support from the Internet but not as much from the BBWAA, though his percentage did increase slightly last year.  His long career as a DH in the Pacific Northwest may be holding him back.

Fred McGriff
Years on ballot: 6
2015 Percentage: 12.9 Continue reading →

Picking Up Some Hardware

KrisBryant

Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant picked up the Sporting News NL Rookie of the Year award last Monday.  He becomes just the sixth Cub player to win the award, and the first since Geovany Soto in 2008.  Bryant should bring home another trophy later this month when the BBWAA announces their Rookie of the Year award.  Hopefully, it’s just the start of a long and prosperous career that sees him get many awards, and maybe, someday, even a ring.

2015 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Newcomers

mlb_hofThe BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2014 on Monday.  The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 8th, with induction taking place next July.  After Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine were elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 17 holdovers along with 17 newcomers, which may start to cause a bit of a problem.  The current BBWAA rules limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10, and there may be more than 10 deserving candidates.  As they start to pile up, and even more deserving candidates become eligible, the BBWAA and the Hall may find themselves with a mess on their hands.

Tuesday, we looked at the returning candidates.  Now, on this day of giving thanks, it’s time to look at the newcomers and who will be thankful come January.

Rich Aurilia

He managed to put up a 15 year career, which got him on this list, but it will be a quick one and done for him.

Aaron Boone

While many Yankee fans would like to see him inducted for a certain post-season home run against the Red Sox in 2003, that won’t be enough to get him a second look.

Tony Clark

Again, a perfectly acceptable career, but will be lucky to get a sympathy vote from a hometown writer.

Carlos Delgado

Delgado finished his career a mere 27 home runs away from 500, which will likely get him some support, but, based on Fred McGriff’s experiences, not enough.

capt.hta15110270331.world_series__hta151Jermaine Dye

The MVP of the 2005 World Series is unlikely to get much in the way of support despite a solid career.

Darin Erstad

The longtime Angel is unlikely to get much support.

Cliff Floyd

Another player with a fine career, but no real question as to his worthiness for the hall.

Nomar Garciaparra

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2015 Hall Of Fame Ballot – The Holdovers

mlb_hofThe BBWAA released their ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2015 yesterday.  The results of the vote are due to be revealed on January 7th, with induction taking place next July.  After Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine were elected in last year’s voting, the new ballot contains 17 holdovers along with 17 newcomers, which may start to cause a bit of a problem.  The current BBWAA rules continue to limit the number of votes on one ballot to 10, and there may be more than 10 deserving candidates.  To complicate things, the number of years of eligibility has been dropped from 15 to 10, with those who were between 10 and 15 grandfathered in.  So, there will be too many qualified candidates fighting for limited spots in a shorter amount of time.  Once again, the BBWAA and the Hall may find themselves with a mess on their hands.

Let’s take a look at the returning candidates today before moving on to the newcomers.

Jeff Bagwell
Years on ballot: 4
2014 Percentage: 54.3

Things have started to trend in the wrong direction for Bagwell, which may be due to the 10 vote limit.  Given the qualified list of newcomers and the continued PED rumors, I expect he will continue to be waiting for that elusive call.

Craig Biggio
Years on ballot: 2
2014 Percentage: 74.8

Narrowly missing election in last year’s vote, Biggio seems destined to make it on his third try, giving Astros fans something to look forward to next summer.

Barry Bonds
Years on ballot: 2
2014 Percentage: 34.7

The all time home run champion saw his vote percentage drop in his second year on the ballot.  While the Giants may be softening on having Bonds involved with them, having him throw out a first pitch during this year’s NLCS, the writers voting for the Hall are unlikely to have done the same.

Roger Clemens
Years on ballot: 2
2014 Percentage: 35.4

Roger Clemens, he of the 354 career victories and 7 Cy Young awards, also found himself falling after his second run through the voting process.  For some odd reason, perhaps by having played for more teams, Clemens continues to get marginally more support than his fellow PED poster child Barry Bonds.

Jeff Kent
Years on ballot: 1
2014 Percentage: 15.2

The 2000 NL MVP did not find much support in his first year of eligibility.  With the number of candidates coming down the pike, the future does not look good for him.

Edgar Martinez
Years on ballot: 5
2014 Percentage: 25.2

The longtime DH for the Mariners has had plenty of support from the Internet but not as much from the BBWAA, as his percentage dropped by over 10 percentage points.  His long career as a DH in the Pacific Northwest may be holding him back.

Don Mattingly
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BBWAA Award Predictions

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles DodgersThe Baseball Writers of America have announced the finalists for their awards for the just completed baseball season.  It is a good bet that few of my original predictions for the winners will be accurate.  Hopefully, these new predictions will be slightly better, especially since I’ll have a 33% chance of being right.

American League

Most Valuable Player: Michael Brantley, Mike Trout, Victor Martinez

Mike Trout was my pre-season selection to win this award, and I think, for once, I might have gotten one right.  With Miguel Cabrera out of the picture, thanks to an injury-plagued campaign, Trout should bring home the award that many thought he deserved the past 2 seasons.

Cy Young Award: Chris Sale, Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber

My initial guess of David Price obviously did not make the cut.  While Chris Sale is the sentimental choice around these parts, smart money says that Felix Hernandez will take home the prize.

Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Mike Scioscia, Ned Yost

Once again, I didn’t make any predictions for this award prior to the season.  Normally, I would go with Ned Yost, who led the Royals to the post-season for the first time since 1985, but if there is one thing the national media agrees on, it is how bad Ned Yost is as a manager.  My guess is that the award will go to Buck Showalter, who lead the Orioles to their first division title since 1997.

abreuRookie of the Year: Jose Abreu, Dellin Betances, Matt Shoemaker

Another award I didn’t predict prior to the season.  This one should be a no-brainer.  I would expect Jose Abreu to bring the award back to the south side for the first time since Ozzie Guillen in 1985.

National League

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Picking Up Some Hardware

abreuIt’s been a busy week for White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, first picking up the Sporting News AL Rookie of the Year award on Monday and then being named the first baseman for the AL All Star team announced yesterday, also from Sporting News.  Abreu is the first White Sox player to win the Rookie of the Year award since Gordon Beckham in 2009 and the first AL All Star selected by Sporting News voters since Alexei Ramirez in 2010.

Abreu should bring home another award next month when the BBWAA announces their Rookie of the Year award.  Hopefully, it’s just the start of a long and prosperous career that sees him get many awards, and maybe even a ring.

And The Enshrinees Are

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The BBWAA ballots have been counted and Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, and Tom Glavine have been elected as to the Hall of Fame. Maddux lead the pack with 97.2% of the vote, followed by his former Braves teammate Glavine with 91.9%. Thomas finished third with 83.7% of the vote. Narrowly missing induction, with 74.8% of the vote (the Hall of Fame does not round up) was Craig Biggio.

Maddux, of course, got his start with the Cubs, whom he helped lead to the 1989 NL East title.  He won the first of his 4 consecutive NL Cy Young awards with the North Siders in 1992 before being allowed to leave as a free agent by GM Larry Himes.  Maddux signed with the Braves, where he continued to dominate and helped lead Atlanta to the 1995 World Series championship.  After 11 seasons, he returned to the Cubs in 2004.  He defeated the Giants in August of that year to win his 300th game and, in July of 2005, he struck out his 3000th batter.  In 2006, with the Cubs far out of contention, he was traded to the Dodgers for their stretch run.  For 2007, Maddux signed with the Padres, where he spent the next year and a half before being traded back to the Dodgers for another stretch run.  After the Dodgers were bounced from the playoffs, Maddux announced his retirement.

Frank Thomas was the first round draft pick of the White Sox in the 1989 draft, and made his debut for the White Sox the following year.  Thomas won the AL MVP award in 1993 while leading the White Sox to their final AL West title.  Thomas repeated as MVP in 1994, putting up a .353 average with 38 homers and 101 RBIs in the strike-shortened season.  In 1997, Thomas won the AL batting title and finished third in the MVP race.  After two substandard seasons, at least for him, Thomas rebounded in 2000, leading the White Sox to the AL Central title and narrowly losing the MVP award to a juiced-up Jason Giambi.  Thomas struggled with injuries after that, appearing in only 20 games in 2001, 74 games in 2004, and 34 games in 2005.  He spent the entire post-season on the disabled list as the White Sox won their first World Series in 88 years.  Following that year, the White Sox cut ties with Thomas and he headed out west to play for the A’s.  In his first game back in Chicago as a visiting player, Thomas homered twice.  Thomas spent 2007 and the start of 2008 with the Blue Jays, before finishing the season, and his career, back with the A’s.

I have been witness to milestones for all 3 enshrined players.  I was at Wrigley Field when Greg Maddux made his first attempt at winning his 300th game against the Phillies, the start before he won it on the road against the GIants.  I was there the next season for the rain delayed night game where he would strike out his 3000th batter, again against the Giants.  I was in Shea Stadium for Tom Glavine’s first appearance as a New York Met, which did not turn out well for him.  4 years later, I was at Wrigley Field for a Sunday night matchup where things worked out better for him as he defeated the Cubs for his 300th victory.

Thomas is now the Hall of Famer I have seen in action more than any other.  I was at his first return appearance as a member of the A’s, where, before the first of his 2 home runs, he was treated to a standing ovation.  An ovation which panned the crowd and found me amongst the masses, which I happened to notice that night on Baseball Tonight and now lives on as part of the White Sox Memories DVD.  I first saw Thomas play in his rookie year of 1990 and caught 66 of his games over the years.  I was there when he threw out the first pitch before the 2005 ALDS Game 1 against the Red Sox and in 2010 when his number 35 was retired.

Maddux, Thomas, and Glavine’s numbers in games I attended were:

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