The 95th Academy Awards are going down Sunday night and, after a year break, my woeful predictions are back.  I don’t know that I’ve heard of many of these movies let alone seen them, so, with less basis in fact than most years, here’s my uneducated predictions for the non-acting awards.

Best Original Screenplay

Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kusher, The Fablemans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness

I’ve seen none of these films, but Everything Everywhere All at Once seems to be the hot property, so I’m going to go with that.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell, All Quiet on the Western Front
Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living
Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Top Gun: Maverick
Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Who doesn’t love a good war movie?

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red

My best guess, having seen none of these fine films, is that Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio wins the day.

Best Cinematography

James Friend, All Quiet on the Western Front
Darius Khondji, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Mandy Walker, Elvis
Roger Deakins, Empire of Light
Florian Hoffmeister, Tár

Seems like I’m going all in with the war movie.

Best Costume Design

Mary Zophres, Babylon
Ruth Carter, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Catherine Martin, Elvis
Shirley Kurata, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Jenny Beavan, Mrs. Hamm Goes to Paris

Well, I’ve seen one of these films, so let’s go with that one.

Best Documentary Feature

All The Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny

I haven’t heard of any of these, so it is a total shot in the dark.

Best Documentary Short Subject

The Elephant Whispers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate

This is a total guess for a category that I know nothing about.

Achievement in Film Editing

Mikkel E. G. Nielsen, The Banshees of Inisherin
Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond, Elvis
Paul Rogers, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Monika Willi, Tár
Eddie Hamilton, Top Gun: Maverick

It seems like the airplanes that go zoom zoom should do well in this category.

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland

I mean, if I’m going to pick the film to win actual awards, this one should be a gimme.

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová, All Quiet on the Western Front
Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine, The Batman
Camille Friend and Joel Harlow, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti, Elvis
Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley, The Whale

I’ve seen two of these movies, but I’m going a different way and selecting the team behind The Whale.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

All Quiet on the Western Front, Volker Bertelmann
Babylon, Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin, Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once, Son Lux
The Fabelmans, John Williams

You can’t go wrong by picking John Williams.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

Applause from Tell It Like a Woman, by Diane Warren
Hold My Hand from Top Gun: Maverick, by Lady Gaga and BloodPop
Lift Me Up from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler
Naatu Naatu from RRR, Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose
This Is a Life from Everything Everywhere All at Once, Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne

This seems like too obvious a choice.

Achievement in Production Design

All Quiet on the Western Front, Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Avatar: The Way of Water, Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
Babylon, Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Elvis, Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
The Fabelmans, Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

I mean, I don’t get them, but people seem to love these Avatar movies.

Best Animated Short Film

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
The Flying Sailor, Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis
Ice Merchants, João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
My Year of Dicks, Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It, Lachlan Pendragon

Best Live Action Short Film

An Irish Goodbye, Tom Berkely and Ross White
Ivalu, Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
Le pupille, Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
Night Ride, Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
The Red Suitcase, Cyrus Neshvad

These two picks are based on nothing but pure alchemy.

Achievement in Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front, Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte
Avatar: The Way of Water, Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges
The Batman, Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson
Elvis, David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller
Top Gun: Maverick, Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor

I’m going to go with Top Gun, for no particular reason.

Achievement in Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front, Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamil Jafar
Avatar: The Way of Water, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett
The Batman, Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick
Top Gun: Maverick, Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson, and Scott R. Fisher

I’ve seen three of these films, which seems to be a record so far, and could make an argument for any one of them, but I’m going with Avatar.